Business Insider published an article today complaining about weather apps. The article has a whole host of issues: Overreliance on college professors as sources. Many, if not most, have never made a forecast outside a classroom in their entire careers.  The college professors say, "forecasts have never been better." There is a wealth of evidence that is not true.  Government forecasters are not routinely relying on AI.  There is a wide  range in quality in apps. Some are slap-dash output straight from computers. Others use well-qualified meteorologists to develop their forecasts. AccuWeather is one of those.  One businessperson complained about the forecast of rain resulting in only thunder that could be heard. That thunder was created by lightning -- which can kill or injure. Sounds like a good forecast to me. I would be happy to tell you which are the good apps and which are the bad. The problem is that, I don't know. As a meteorologist, when it is important ...

Heavy rains are likely in parts of the Upper Midwest and long the Gulf Coast. 

Another terrible idea from Washington (which is a font of terrible ideas these days)! Remember: Congress has already passed a law that every car sold in 2017 or after  will have to have an interlocking system so it will not start if the car believes you are drunk; or local or federal authorities don't want you to drive! What are we Americans giving up our freedoms without a even a protest?!  

There is a slight risk of a tornado or two in the outlined area later today. This is a meteorologically unusual situation so I suggesting keeping an eye on the weather today. 

On LinkedIn last week, I was asked my definition of "climate change." In case you are interested, here it is:  Our climate continually changes. Clearly, the mean atmospheric and oceanic temperatures of earth are warmer than 100 years ago. This is due to a mix of natural (volcanic, solar, internal variability) and human-driven factors including greenhouse gas concentrations, land use changes, instrument relocations and numerous other factors. Unfortunately, we don't know the exact contribution of each of these factors.

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in these area. 

Daily Mail A few days ago, lightning from (nearly) dry thunderstorms set off a large number of fires in the Pacific Northwest. It is possible, if the facts justify, to blame them on global warming. And, in France... But these arson-set fires -- which are far more frequent than lightning sparked fires -- should never be blamed on climate change. 

This is a tiny part of the major damage from a violent tornado(es) that began around 12:55pm this afternoon in the south part of the Green Bay metro area. Appleton was hard hit with major damage and with injuries, the extent of which are unknown at this time.  The problem: At 11:30am the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center forecast zero  chance of strong tornadoes anywhere in the U.S. and just a tiny (2%) chance of tornadoes of any intensity. Because of the events in Wisconsin, they were forced to rush out (17 minutes after the tornado began) a product calling for "strong" tornadoes -- that the public doesn't even see.  I believe the tornado will be rated at least EF-3 intensity.  The local Green Bay NWS office did an adequate job with this fast-developing situation, especially since the guidance would not have indicated to them there was any kind of meaningful tornado risk. From radar, the first significant indication of a tornado was at 11:56. Their ...

Wall Street Journal Are you kidding?! This is insane. The mergers of Continental + United and Northwest + Delta never  should have been approved for antitrust/oligopoly reasons. Those mergers, along with U.S. Air + American have killed competition and have directly led to flying being the terrible experience it is today. The 'leaders' of the airlines can't manage what they have; what makes them believe they can manage a vastly bigger company?! Of course, these mergers never seem to bring the "synergy" that is promised so they end up cutting people and service.  When you combine these "too big to care" airlines with Congress being influenced by the airline lobby to make it practically impossible to hold the airlines accountable -- no matter how egregious their behavior -- it makes our airline experience worse than many "second world" airlines.  For our 50th wedding anniversary, we purchased first class tickets on American. Good thing we did! The...

The red areas have an enhanced risk  of winds of 60 mph or stronger. Where you see hatching the forecast winds are 75 mph or stronger. In those areas, power outages are quite possible.  The yellow areas have a significant risk of 60 mph gusts with 75 mph gusts possible in the hatched areas. In South Dakota, the yellow/hatched area includes Yankton and in Nebraska it includes Norfolk and O'Neill.  The greater threat begins after 6pm. 

Kansas City Star NFL training camps have begun. And as much as we love fellow Kansan Travis Kelce, and welcome his new Missus to our state, I can't say I think much of their taste in hats. His chapeau reminds me of a famous scene in a movie about another sport (below):

Happily, the caption says it all. Predictions are that it will be a below average tropical storm season in the Atlantic. Let's hope the tropical meteorologists are correct!

While Fausto is a hurricane now, it will weaken (high confidence) to tropical storm status before reaching Hawaii. In history, just a single hurricane has struck Hawaii from the east (the bad hurricanes come from the south during El Nino years).  That said, Fausto will bring heavy rains to the islands as well as sustained 40 mph winds.  Editorial comment: I get so tired of having to correct the media's clickbait. [end]

S  = tropical storm.   D  = tropical depression. Amber is the radius of tropical storm force winds (40 mph or stronger).  The Hurricane Center is moved its forecast for Bertha back into southern Texas. I'm concerned about heavy rain potential if it stalls in that area.  Otherwise, this is a disorganized tropical storm with 50 mph winds. It is forecast to weaken from this point, onward. 

NOAA You may have noticed several recent articles in which "science" supposedly attributed specific floods and wildfires (which were mostly started by arsonists) to climate change.  Single event attribution is meteorological voodoo . Nothing more.  If it was necessary to have climate change "boost" major storms the following could not have occurred. "Worst" was determined by the intensity of the event.  1871. Worst wildfire in the history of the United States. 1925. The worst tornado in the United States (and probably the world) in recorded history. 1927. The worst flood in the history of the United States.  1935. The worst hurricane in the history of the United States.  1930's. The worst drought and heatwave in the history of the United States.  Climate science says human-affected global warming began about 1958. All of these terrible events occurred without global warming's help.   Clarification:  1958 is intended to show the era it began, not ...

This is the latest update pertaining to Tropical Storm Bertha. It has peak winds of 60 mph (amber area) mostly south of its center (the X ). The forecast path has been shifted a bit to the north. Hurricane development is not  expected. 

We have two geographically large threats today. Tornado Risk The brown area has a significant risk of a tornado. Damaging Wind Risk The purple area has a high  risk of thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. The red area has an enhanced risk. The yellow area has a significant risk.  Power outages are quite likely. Please prepare accordingly. 

--- 3:25pm Post --- Note that in addition to tornadoes, tennis ball-sized hail and wind gusts to 75 mph are forecast to occur.  ------ The yellow area has an enhanced  tornado risk. In Iowa, the yellow area includes Waterloo and Charles City and nearly includes Dubuque and Mason City. The brown area has a significant tornado risk which, in Iowa, includes Ames, Marshalltown and Clear Lake. In Minnesota, the brown area includes Rochester.  The hatching means that any tornado that occurs in that area could be strong.  I will update occasionally on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert  . 

While the tropical storm watches have been extended, the forecast peak winds with the system have been lowered. The greater threat with this system is possible heavy rain in Texas when it comes inland over the weekend or the first of next week. 

Via Bjorn Lomborg: Multiple scientists have pointed out that this year's wildfire activity is well below average. Plus, Canada's temperatures have averaged below  average so far in 2026.  The "global warming caused the Canadian wildfires" is the usual alarmist nonsense. 

.... here are suggestions for debris pick up if you county or city is offering it.  Good luck, Texas!!

The National Hurricane Center is alerting people the area outlined along the Gulf Coast should be prepared for a tropical storm. While wind may be a problem, torrential rain may also develop.  I'm very concerned that this storm will bring more heavy rain to south Texas.  Of course, I will update on this situation. 

What a heartbreaking story! Unfortunately, DEI and trans'ing teenagers will have similar outcomes.  Speaking of ridiculous: This nonsense is a cancer on our society.  And, speaking on cancers on society: The only thing California's high speed rail project has produced is record amounts of graft. 

Tornado Risk The brown areas have a significant risk of tornadoes and where the hatching occurs, which includes Atlantic City, Wilmington and Camden, indicates that if a tornado occurs, it could be strong. Damaging Wind Risk Here is the color code: The pink is a rare  high  risk of damaging winds (on my 4-point scale) of 60 mph or stronger.  The red is an enhanced risk of damaging winds. The yellow area is a significant risk of damaging winds. How to prepare? With widespread power outages possible, fill your car with fuel, get extra cash at the ATM, fill your generator with fuel.  Bring in lawn furniture or other items that can be blown about. Trampolines are the (humorous) "State Bird of Kansas" because they fly so easily. They can also damage the objects or homes they strike. Bring it indoors, if possible.  If you have a chainsaw, go ahead and fill it with gas or electrical charge. Mobile homes that are not tied down are not safe in high winds. If you live in ...

Wow, this has been a month of big news for the city.  Given its very low cost of living, it is a great city to consider if you are considering a relocation. 

Saturday will likely be a big weather day if the NWS Storm Prediction Center is correct. Here is the forecast from 8am EDT Saturday to 8am Sunday.  Tornado Risk The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes Saturday.  Damaging Wind Risk Here is the color code: The pink is a rare high  risk of damaging winds (on my 4-point scale) of 60 mph or stronger.  The red is an enhanced risk of damaging winds. The yellow area is a significant risk of damaging winds. How to prepare? With widespread power outages possible, fill your car with fuel, get extra cash at the ATM, fill your generator with fuel.  Bring in lawn furniture or other items that can be blown about. Trampolines are the (humorous) "State Bird of Kansas" because they fly so easily. They can also damage the objects or homes they strike. Bring it indoors, if possible.  If you have a chainsaw, go ahead and fill it with gas or electrical charge. Mobile homes that are not tied down are not safe in high w...

It is about over. I've tried -- again, after many other attempts -- to learn to like soccer. I am a hopeless case. The game is dull with the most exciting moments being when an invisible "offsides" occurs. Also exciting are the fake injuries (I was pleased to see a Swiss player get a red card for it). I don't know why FIFA puts up with it them. More red cards seem like a good idea. I think the tournament was great for the USA (and Mexico and Canada). Kansas City really enjoyed it.  Me? I'll go back to my writing. The players can go back to their acting lessons. 

These are really good suggestions. Please take them to heart. 

I apologize for the intermittent postings this week. 

Catastrophic flooding now forecast (pink). "Considerable" flooding is dark blue and "limited" flooding is forecast in the pale blue area. It is possible that I-10 and other highways may be closed in spots before this is all over. I'm certain evacuations will be required.  Torrential rains are expected to occur in southwest Texas during the next seven days. Major flooding is already occurring west of San Antonio.  These additional rains will likely cause record flooding.  The rain in the intermountain region will be of net benefit although isolated flooding (especially in burn scar regions) will occur. 

High Risk of Flash Flooding in the Purple Area Included in the high risk area are Uvalde, Hondo and Crystal City. Kerr County, the site of the devastating flash flood of July 4, 2025, has a "moderate" risk. As of 11:45am, flash flood warnings  are in effect for most of the area between San Antonio and Del Rio.  Light to moderate intensity rain continues to fall over most of the region. The rainfall rates may increase in intensity this afternoon.

An unusually high risk of tornadoes and damaging winds exists in Maine and adjacent areas of New England.  The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of strong  tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of strong tornadoes. The green area has a very low (but non-zero) risk, any tornadoes in the hatched area could be strong.  This is the forecast for damaging thunderstorm-generated winds. The red area has an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. The hatched yellow area is where there is a significant risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. The unhatched yellow area has a significant risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  Remember:  A tornado watch  means tornadoes are possible. A tornado warning   means it is time to take shelter. The graphic below will help you determine your shelter area. I will update on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert . 

There is a serious risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in Maine and nearby parts of New England on Tuesday.  Because of the unusual location, I'm providing an extra day's "heads up." Tornado Risk The area in brown hatching has a significant risk of strong tornadoes.  Damaging Winds The hatched red area has an enhanced  risk of damaging winds of 75 mph or stronger. The hatched yellow area has a significant risk of 75 mph or stronger. The unhatched yellow area has a significant risk of gust of 60 mph or stronger.  Of course, I will update this forecast tomorrow morning. 

If you need rain and live south of Interstate 70, you have a pretty good chance the next five days.  [I-70 runs from near Washington, DC to central Utah.] Update 3:10pm CDT The pale blue area is where the NWS is forecasting scattered flooding between now and Sunday morning. 

The latest data shows reason for concern about the deepening drought in the West and its potential spread eastward. This week's drought data is discouraging. The severe drought from the Rockies to the Sierra continues to worsen as does the drought in the Middle Atlantic region.  Here is the forecast rainfall amounts for the next seven days.  In the West, the light rains will be of little help.  Our ability to forecast summer rainfall amounts at 8 to 14 days is marginal at best, but here's the latest estimate: While part of the western drought area is forecast to have greater than average rainfall, it is not particularly good news for two reasons. The first is that this is generally a dry time of year so more than usual rain isn't very much. Second, is the temperatures are forecast to be above normal so the evaporation rates will be high. I will periodically update this situation.