Just This Afternoon: Another Terrible NWS Tornado Forecast

This is a tiny part of the major damage from a violent tornado(es) that began around 12:55pm this afternoon in the south part of the Green Bay metro area. Appleton was hard hit with major damage and with injuries, the extent of which are unknown at this time. 

The problem: At 11:30am the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center forecast zero chance of strong tornadoes anywhere in the U.S. and just a tiny (2%) chance of tornadoes of any intensity. Because of the events in Wisconsin, they were forced to rush out (17 minutes after the tornado began) a product calling for "strong" tornadoes -- that the public doesn't even see. 

I believe the tornado will be rated at least EF-3 intensity. 

The local Green Bay NWS office did an adequate job with this fast-developing situation, especially since the guidance would not have indicated to them there was any kind of meaningful tornado risk. From radar, the first significant indication of a tornado was at 11:56. Their tornado warning was, I'm sure, based on that data and it was published at 11:59. 

The Storm Prediction Center has had a prestigious reputation since its creation in the 1950's. But there have been concerning indications the past couple of years. In 2026, the quality of their forecasts has been terrible in a number of situations. I do not know the reasons why (that would be for a different column), but huge changes are needed in the National Weather Service at all levels. 

There is one tiny bit of good news: Yesterday, the 2026 AirVenture held in Oshkosh, with total attendance of 704,000- -- the biggest in their history -- ended and the attendees flew away. Most of the attendees camp outdoors. I can't imagine what this unforecast storm might have done if AirVenture had been still in progress. 

--- Originally Published 12:01 this morning ---

Headline: The NWS's Storm Warning Problems Have Become Obvious to All

Last week, two ordinary people (not meteorologists, emergency managers or other specialists) were conversing on Twitter/X and commented there are too many "false alarm" activations on their phones (Wireless Emergency Alerts or WEA) for heat waves in Arizona in late July. Agree completely!

Note the comment about its forecasting "going downhill significantly." I wouldn't doubt it for a moment. 

Meteorologist Matthew Cappucci has also made this video complaining about the NWS's tremendous overuse of "tornado emergency" warnings. These are only supposed to be issued the evidence is overwhelming ("virtually certain") of a life-threatening tornado. They should be right nearly 100% of the time. Instead, per the research of the NWS's own Patrick Marsh, they are correct just an awful 17%! 

Earlier this spring, the St. Louis NWS issued 20+ false alarm tornado warnings based on side lobes, the topic of Matthew's video. 

Here is Matthew's story:

The NWS has completely lost focus on its mission. It has almost no quality control, which was written about just last week by retired NWS meteorologist Alan Gerard. The only hope is a National Disaster Review Board.