Why NWS Flood Warnings Don't Have the Credibility They Should

Taken by the author in Olathe, looking northeast.

When you see meteorologists and others criticizing the people of Kerr County, Texas for not immediately evacuating when the first flood warning was received at 1:14am on July 4, here is a perfect example of the NWS’s flood warning credibility problem via an "areal flood advisory" in Olathe, Kansas, this evening. 

 

Above is a photo, taken from Olathe, of a thunderstorm cluster moving over Kansas City. As I was starting to crop the photo to post on the blog, I was flabbergasted to see a NWS “flood advisory” for Olathe come out.

 

Here is the primary problem: While it may rain, it isn’t going to flood in Olathe by 10:30, the time the advisory expires. The sky is blue (look at the top of the photo). Plus, it has been dry in this area recently.  

 

Next, while the list of locations included includes Olathe, the polygon does not. Which are people supposed to trust?

Olathe is noted. The blue dot was my location
when I took the sky photo.

Finally, it is an "a-r-e-a-l flood advisory" and no one knows that "areal" means. I’ve had many people come up to me over the years asking why I think the NWS needs to tell us the advisory or warning is “real”? They are reading it as “a real flood advisory.”

 

Overwarning, mislocation, unclear terminology: that’s why people don’t immediately act when they get a flood notification from the NWS! We have been unwitting training people to be skeptical of these messages. 

For the record, it rained but there was no flooding at all in Olathe by 10:30 when the above advisory expired. 

There was heavy rain overnight with flash flooding in a number of areas with water rescues after midnight.