Grok On one level, this piece by Australia's Jo Nova is hilarious . The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is joining companies like United Airlines and Wal•Mart in blaming the weather for their performance problems. Australia's Channel 7 news says: Australians are facing a new climate reality where traditional weather patterns no longer apply, with scientists warning that “climate whiplash” is making seasonal forecasts increasingly unreliable and costly. The phenomenon has left meteorologists struggling to predict what’s coming next, as one season can bring floods, fires, storms and record heat with little warning. My "favorite" comment?   But forecasters admit anything is possible in the current climate. So -- surprise -- the Aussie meteorologists want more money because it is getting harder to forecast the weather at 90 days in the future.  While I have zero experience forecasting 90 day weather Down Under, I do know that our 90-day forecasts are of poor quality no ...

We do not post seasonal forecast because, regardless of the creator, none of them show any consistent skill. The lawyers like it when I post: This blog is © 2025 Mike Enterprises, LLC. Thank you. 

This long range forecast of the potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is generated by Dr. Victor Genesini and has generally proven -- when it is at an exceptionally high level as shown above -- to be of high quality. The forecast begins April 24.  This would be a good time to consider installing any storm mitigation devices (generators, etc.) you might be considering or clearing out your storm shelter 

Yesterday, with great fanfare, the media brought the NOAA spring weather outlooks to everyone's attention. One place you didn't find them? Here.  While long range weather outlooks generate lots  of "clicks," I refuse to post them not only because their skill is -- at best -- inconsistent; but because they are often terribly wrong. This blog is about forecasting what is the best weather science can produce.  Let's look at the forecast for this past winter and what actually happened. Look at the very top: the "skill" of the forecasts is negative. Meaning, overall, you would have been better off with a forecast the opposite  of what was forecast.  Two years ago, these same long range forecast product called for drier than normal conditions in California when they actually had one of the wettest winters in their history! I have not been able to find any seasonal forecaster with consistent skill. So, that is why I don't post them.  If the NWS is looking f...

With a hat tip to Joe Bastardi, here is a comparison of January's actual weather to the long-range outlook. Above is NOAA's temperature forecast for January, 2025, made in mid-December 2024. It called for warmer than average weather over every state except Hawaii.  As of the 21st, these are the actual temperatures for the 48 states. With the exceptions of California and Maine, the forecast could not be more wrong.  I have not found any forecasts of more than two weeks to have consistent skill and even those two week forecasts are dicey, especially in the warmer months.  Our goal is always to provide quality, accurate weather information and while long range forecasts gather clicks, that's now how we wish to grow our blog. 

This is valid from Tuesday to the Sunday after Thanksgiving With regard to precipitation, since it is late November, colder than average + wetter than average = well, you get the idea. Stay tuned for more updates. 

We do not present monthly, seasonal, yearly or forecasts of even longer range on this blog.  I have not seen any of these forecasts that have consistent  skill, especially as pertains rainfall. I was looking at one of last year's seasonal forecast and its validation was so bad that users would have been better off assuming the opposite of what was forecast for that location. 

I don't know if it is because Thanksgiving is the 23rd this month or what, but there are a lot of meteorologists commenting online about the weather in the period from the 15th through 20th and their forecasts look rather odd to me, specifically those who are forecasting drier than average condition in the west half of the nation during that period of time.  This is just one of the forecasts which has raised my concern. Others on social media are talking about "persisting drought" in the West during this same period.  While forecasting beyond 5-7 days this time of year is risky, I'm not coming to those conclusions.  Using the 500mb control ECMWF, the top map is valid at 6pm on the 16th. The bottom map is valid 6pm on the 20th. Neither is a recipe for dry conditions in the west half of the country. Similar results come from using the Canadian and the UKMET. As is often the case, the U.S.'s GFS model is an outlier, which may be the reason for the odd forecasts. Pers...

The Biden Administration has released its gift to the nation's attorneys in the form of a document called the " National Climate Resilience Framework ." As I began paging through it, one paragraph immediately caught my attention. The Administration wants to require the following of businesses, Require disclosure of climate risks . Accurate and broadly shared information on climate risks is essential for evaluation of private assets, well-functioning markets, and financial stability. By requiring disclosure of these risks where feasible and appropriate, Federal, State, Tribal, territorial, and local agencies can help investors make more climate-informed decisions and encourage companies to increase risk-mitigation efforts. For instance, a  proposed rule  by the Securities and Exchange Commission would require companies to disclose information on the risks that climate change poses to their strategies, business models, and outlooks, and to describe how they plan to manage t...

If an organization is going to make long range forecasts ( > 15 days), then it is fair to criticize them if the forecasts do not work out. The Daily Mail  published an article this afternoon criticizing NWS/NOAA's winter forecast which forecasted drier than normal conditions for California . The forecasts are below. I added the arrow on the drought forecast.  Obviously, this was a lousy forecast.  The forecasts are intended to 'help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods.'  The wholly inaccurate forecasts have now been slammed by individuals and organizations reliant upon the information.  One official with the Public Policy Institute of California's Water Policy Center said the forecasts are unhelpful for groups that have to monitor things like water supply.  'You have no idea come Dec. 1 what your winter is going to look like because our seasonal forecasts are so bad,' ...

As you know, I am not a long-range weather forecaster. But, meteorologists who are experts in the field have been talking up a cold wave for the second half of December. It is starting to show up in the conventional data and I want to give you a heads up. One of the elements for a major cold wave is greater than average snow cover. Right now, it is the highest since records began being kept in the 1960's! Here are the corresponding forecasts: 6 to 10 Day Forecast 8 to 14 Day Forecast December 17-30 Forecast Energy costs are going to increase significantly if these forecasts are correct. Please note that the period of colder than average weather will include Christmas. These forecasts imply travel issues (snow and ice) as well as extreme cold.  While we on the subject of long range forecasts, NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the potential for out-of-season tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.  Monday and Monday Night The area in yellow may see strong thunderstorms. Tue...

On March 2 and 8, I've written about the international implications of the drought in the Great Plains' winter wheat belt. Slowly, this knowledge has spread. The above article is from today's Wall Street Journal .  Below is a chart of wheat prices for the past five years. By far the highest are the current prices. With the war issues in Russia and the Ukraine, combined with the drought in the Great Plains, it is likely shortages of wheat and bread will result.  Below is last week's precipitation in the winter wheat belt. Below is the departure from normal precipitation for the next six days. There will be some light to moderate precipitation about Thursday of this week.  And, below is the departure from normal for the next 15 days. There are indications that a slow-moving storm will affect the Great Plains approximately the 21-24 of the month. If the models are correct, the rain/snow from that system is likely to be generous. However, whether it will be sufficient and i...

The world could, literally, be facing a bread shortage.  [Update: 9p Wednesday: Hungary has banned grain exports. The only reason to do this is they expect a major shortage.] This is yet another problem on the international horizon. The price of wheat has reached historic highs and yet many of our farmers may not be able to take advantage of it because they may not have much of a crop.  It is even than you would think with Russian shipments interrupted and Ukrainian shipments halted. While I don't much trust reports out of China , this is alarming.  Keep in mind that winter wheat is planted in September and October and harvested during June and July. The following map is quite informative, click to enlarge. Kansas is, by far, the #1 winter wheat state.  The problem is what the wheat belt = central Great Plains which is in a worsening drought. Below is a map of percentage of normal precipitation over the past 60 days.  The two best extended range precipitation mo...

UPDATE at Bottom This map forecasts precipitation amounts from 6pm this evening to 6pm Thursday the 17th.  While who gets rain or snow and exactly how much will be exactly where are still unknown, this is an indication of generous rains where they are badly needed. Below is the Palmer Drought Index as of February 4. The winter wheat belt really needs additional precipitation.  Update to include NWS's 6-10 day outlook.

Via the ECMWF model, considered the best in the world, here is its 45-day precipitation outlook to mid-January. It shows some easing of the drought in the West, a snowy Great Lakes region and increasing dryness from the central Great Plains to Texas.  Note: This should not be considered an iron-clad forecast but rather a general idea of conditions.  Hat tip: Dr. Ryan Maue In the meantime, here is the 15-day precipitation amount forecast, also from the ECMWF. First, the total precipitation forecast: And, below, is the deviation from normal precipitation amounts: Again, these are not ironclad forecasts but they do have some meteorological skill. 

There's been a lot of news today about NOAA releasing its winter outlook. You will not see it on this blog, nor will you see AccuWeather's, the Weather Channel's, nor the others.  I do have respect for Joe Bastardi's outlook (updated here ), but even then I would urge caution. 

It is disappointing how little progress weather science has made in this field in the last thirty years. 

 ...this was the 6-10 day forecast from the National Weather Service.  And, from my blog, on Saturday, Credit to Joe Bastardi for the hurricane analogy Now, from this afternoon's news . First, from the mayor of Houston, Via The Weather Channel: Please keep in mind that Galveston is on the coast. If there is good reason to believe there are 20-50 exposure deaths there, what might it be like farther north? Unlike a hurricane or tornado where first responders know which homes to search, it is impossible to know from the outside which homes may contain people in serious distress due to cold. We may still be a long way off from knowing the full extent of this disaster.   While Texas Representative Crenshaw, and others, have called for an investigation, it is difficult to understand how so much could have gone so wrong with weather forecasts clearly calling for extreme cold and for wetter than average conditions.  I cannot help but wonder if this was yet another time ...

It is the annual meteorological "silly season." After all of the heavy topics of the last few days, here is some mid-week fun. You no longer see long range forecasts on this blog because, so far, I have not found one that demonstrates consistent  skill. Meteorologist Brad Panovich has come up with a great parody of the Farmer's Almanac's  winter outlooks. Speaking as a former broadcast meteorologist, I  hated  the release of every year's Farmer's Almanac forecast because we would get the same questions, over and over, about an outlook with no scientific skill. I would even keep the previous year's and read from it to demonstrate the forecasts were always wrong.  From Twitter, yesterday, I see things have not changed. I often failed the "test of character" (patience, actually) when dealing with those who believed that the Farmer's Almanac's  forecast were gospel and would not stop the harangue when I disagreed.