A Note to Blog Readers - Long Range Forecasts

By -
There's been a lot of news today about NOAA releasing its winter outlook. You will not see it on this blog, nor will you see AccuWeather's, the Weather Channel's, nor the others. 

I do have respect for Joe Bastardi's outlook (updated here), but even then I would urge caution. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Tornado Forecast Update at 2am Wednesday

By -
Image
2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage.  Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today.  1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night.  11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas.  This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about.  I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
Read more

Updated Winter Storm Forecast, 9:30pm CST

By -
Image
--- This Forecast Has Been Updated  --- You Will Find the New Forecast Here After a quick look at the new data this evening, I believe the forecast is still good. There may be light amounts of freezing rain in north central Texas as far south as Waco. It will not be enough to cause power outages but -- if it occurs -- it will make roads very slick.  The snow amount forecasts haven't changed. I believe DFW will receive 1-3" with heavier amounts as you go northeast. I-30 will become a mess for its entire route.  --- original forecast still valid --- Here are the latest NWS winter weather warnings and watches as of 3:15pm Note: the white "hole" in southwest Texas will be filled in with a purple winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow.  Color codes: Pink = winter storm warning  Dark green = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Bright green = ongoing flood warning  Dark blue and bright turquoise = freeze warnings.  As expected, t...
Read more

"Particularly Dangerous Situation" - Update 5:35pm

By -
Image
A major windstorm is forecast for Oklahoma and Texas Sunday.  This has the potential to cause widespread power failures.  Please prepare now. More information below.  5:35pm:  Particularly Dangerous Situation watch due to wind gusts forecast to reach 105 mph and  with hail 5" in diameter. Tornadoes also possible.  If you live in a mobile home, now is the time to determine your sheltering situation. I urge you to shelter before warnings are issued (spend the evening with friends or family). Power outages are likely. A mobile vehicle from the National Severe Storms Laboratory has already measured a gust of 90 mph! 3:05pm Update: Computer models have consistently increased their forecasts of peak wind gusts pertaining to north central Texas this evening. Wind gusts of 110 mph are possible. If correct, widespread power outages are likely.  First Watch of the Day Pertaining to the  Derecho   In addition to the threat of tornadoes, wind gusts of 80...
Read more