Some Apologies Pertaining to Yesterday's Storms
Yesterday was hardly weather science's best day. I believe some apologies are in order.
Amateur Storm Chasers.
Storm chasing has brought numerous insights into meteorology that have resulted in better tornado warnings. That stated, it is my understanding, backed up by photos and video, the roads in northeast Kansas were absolutely clogged by 'chasers.' The problem is that many of these people were not actual chasers.
In a number of cases (and this has happened to me more than once) locals recognize that a chaser(s) is in the area and they want to see a tornado. So they start following the chaser. It reminds me of the airport phenomenon known as "gate lice," when one person prematurely gets in line so everyone does. I'm told there were hundreds of cars. In addition to "locals," there are the "thrill seeker" chasers, many of whom seem to little regard for traffic laws.
One person estimated there were between 800 and 1,600 people in northeast KS and far southeast Nebraska, most of which were not meteorology-based chasers. This does not include the chasers farther south (there were no known traffic problems there).
To the people of the areas who had to endure awful chaser traffic: My apology.
One bright note: the chaser hordes bring money to rural regions (gasoline, snacks, meals, and in some cases, lodging) that can certainly use it.
Yesterday's "Overforecast" of Tornado Intensity. My forecast (scroll down), while excellent in predicting the greater tornado risk was "in Kansas from the I-70 counties north to the Nebraska border," was poor in predicting violent tornadoes. I doubt there were any stronger than EF-2 and most were weaker. While the forecast originated from the NWS SPC, I did not disagree with the "violent tornado" aspect. I'm sure that caused some unnecessary worry and I regret that.
In addition, the geographic area cited as having a risk for tornadoes was far too large. While there were likely tornadoes during the night in Missouri (brown risk area) that have not yet been mapped, there were no tornadoes north of I-80 nor south of I-70...all the way to Texas. Again, a poor forecast.
It is impossible to get all of our tornado forecasts correct. Still, aspects of this forecast were bad. Weather science needs closely review these cases and learn from them.
That chaser situation was insane. It reminds me why I chose to stop years ago, even out here in the Wyoming high plains. The hordes arrive here when the shift occurs, and it never used to be that way. Gone are the days the university and NOAA research projects, like I participated in, can function decently. I believe I see a DOW in that picture amidst the horde. What a mess for them. There will come a day a scene such as the picture in this post will occur when something goes horribly wrong with a large tornado, leading to many getting wiped out. Many will get trapped and unable to escape. However, I hope not. I get it, folks should be able to chase, but I believe there is a point of over-saturation. Also, one's level of knowledge and experience should play into common-sense decisions about participating (you have to know what you are doing). What good is the scene in the picture? That's no fun and seriously detracts from the experience.
ReplyDeleteI was watching a professional, meteorology-based chaser yesterday on his live stream. Another chaser blew a stop sign and turned in front of him. He had to lock upo the brakes to avoid a crash. How many fatalities have we had from this very behavior? Some folks simply do not get it.