Update (10:20p CST) Pertaining to the Major Winter Storm

Radar Image and Commentary as of 10pm

(This is the last of the hourly updates for this evening.)

Radar image from 10pm. Note the explosion of pink/salmon color from southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas. The following (blue) was written at 9p:

I am increasingly concerned about more freezing rain over the southeast half of Arkansas than is currently being forecast. If you live in southeast Arkansas, I recommend making ice storm preparations now. 

Radar, plus ground truth data from Arkansas weather stations, show the icing concern is well-founded. There will be icing during the night in at least part of this area. 10:20pm Note: Some of the weather station's wind measuring instruments have already glazed over in southern Arkansas. 

Thunderstorms with snow/sleet/freezing rain may occur in OK, AR, TX south of I-40.

Ice Storm Warnings in Violet 

• Violet = ice storm warning (rare)
• Pink = winter storm warning 
• Purple = winter weather advisory 
• Dark Turquoise = winter storm watch
• Light Turquoise = cold weather advisory 

Winter storm warnings have been extended into Vermont. Note the ice storm warnings (violet) that now include Atlanta and Charlotte. They also include part of the area hit so hard by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina and parts of far east Tennessee. 

In the ice area from Louisiana to Tennessee, the Sperry-Piltz Ice Storm Damage Index reaches a value of "4" (map not shown). Below is the description of what a 4 implies:

The area farther east, including Atlanta and Charlotte, reaches a "3." 

However, with crews stretched because of the large geographic area of freezing rain, there will be areas where the outages are of longer duration than shown above. 

If you have never been in an ice storm, they can look like this. Major power failures and travel disruptions are possible. 

Example image from State of Vermont Dept of Natural Resources 

Ice Storm Safety Recommendations: 

• Traveling any distance will be difficult to impossible. If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
• Get prescriptions refilled.
• Fill your car's tank with petrol or electric charge. If you have a gas can (used for your lawn mower, etc.), fill it if you have a gasoline or diesel car/truck. If you have chains, use them. 
• Get extra cash (ATM's and electronic checkout systems don't work without power)
• Prepare a "go-kit" in case you need to evacuate due to an extended power outage. If so, remember to close the valve where water comes into the house. 
• If you have a generator, fill it with gasoline or kerosene. Remember: if you have a portable generator, keep the generator's exhaust away from your home's air intakes. There is a carbon monoxide danger otherwise. Never try to bring a charcoal or similar grill into your home! You could burn down your home or perish from carbon monoxide poisoning. Do not bring a portable generator into your home due to extreme carbon monoxide poisoning danger. 

Snow Forecast Challenge

There is some uncertainty in the central Great Plains snow amounts due to the part it will likely be a two-part storm. Above is the forecast radar for 8pm Saturday which depicts the two parts. Some tools bring the western area of snow (Part 2) north through much of Kansas while others show the second area of snow only affecting southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. I've factored this into the snow forecast below. 

Snow Amount Forecasts

Travel will be nearly impossible in the heavier snow areas. Please get any traveling done before the winter storm begins in your area. A late special weather balloon launch (3:30p) shows that, north of I-40 in Oklahoma and western Arkansas, the sleet will be relatively sparse. So, record snowfalls are possible. 

Update at 10pm, valid until 1:15am. 

And, if you must drive, please give snow plows plenty of room!

And, a really cool video from some of the folks that help keep food on your table and supplies in your home: https://x.com/BNSFRailway/status/2014821487220306131   WeatherData, Inc/AES did their weather forecasts and storm warnings. If you have a youngster who likes trains, invite he or she to watch.