After a dozen days with almost no tornadoes, it appears things could get active again during June. So, I wanted to provide this reminder. 

It looks like the first significant tornado situations of 2024 will develop the middle of next week.  While these are very  preliminary, the yellow areas are where tornadoes, large hail and/or damaging thunderstorm winds may occur. So, this means it is time to get your tornado safety planning completed. If you do not have a "safe room" or a  storm shelter , the safest place is in a basement under heavy furniture such as a pool table.  Rehearse  taking shelter there with your children. If you do not have a shelter or basement, then get into a bathroom or closet in the middle of the house. The theory is to put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado. Laying down in the bathtub is a good idea. Again, r ehearse  taking shelter there with your children.  Wherever your safe area may be, put in a couple of bottles of water, a pair of old shoes with good soles, and, if appropriate, a couple of diapers.  If you are in public, avoid buildings ...

I have two tornado outlooks I want to share with you so you can prepare. Friday and Friday Night As we have had a break in the tornadoes that were frequent in March and the first week of this month, it looks like we'll have a day with tornadoes possible in eastern Kansas, central and eastern Texas, and northeast and north central Texas, including the Metroplex.  At of this point, and this is quite preliminary, the greater chance of tornadoes will be in the red area marked "enhanced." There is a lesser, but still significant, risk in the orange area.  As for Saturday, it is too soon to make a forecast as yet.  Late April and May The product below is known to meteorologists as "the chiclets." It is a long range severe thunderstorm and tornado outlook that has been surprisingly good this season.  I'm not going to try to decipher this for non-meteorologists but it suffices to say that the period from April 25 to May 25 (the end of the forecast period) -- if this...

Several newspapers have run stories in the last few days pertaining to what type of tornado season (mild, bad) their readership areas might have this year. As you know, I do not post long-range forecasts on the blog because there seems to be so much interest -- I'm going to offer my thoughts on the topic as it pertains to Kansas as the Wichita Eagle  (screen capture above) ran one of those stories.  Based on some work I did a few years ago, Kansas tends to get more and worse tornadoes when El Nino/La Nina are neutral. This feature is known as ENSO and it is forecasted to be neutral this spring season. The spaghetti on the forecast graph (below) is the result of various oceanographic models' forecasts of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial east Pacific. Almost all forecast neutral conditions this spring. We will likely have an El Nino (positive temperatures > 1°C) by autumn.  The article also points out that high contrasts in soil moisture can promote tornadoes. ...

It is the time of year when you can expect to experience tornadoes in your region. Of course, they vary greatly by year. 

If there was ever a week that demonstrated the vital importance of  weather forecasts and storm warnings, we just lived it.  Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather  takes you behind the scenes as meteorologists warn of some of the most dangerous storms of the last 80 years. It is written in the style of a novel and has 4.7 stars at Amazon after 77 reviews.  If you'd like to get a taste of the book, you can read the first chapter at no cost, no obligation and no credit card number, here . It is the first chapter.  If you would like to know more about the book or to purchase  Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather  just click on the turquoise link. 

Violent Oklahoma Tornado. Courtesy of Dick McGowan I wish to direct your attention to a fascinating list ranking the intensity of the 59 tornadoes since 1950 that have been rated F-5. You can access the article, here . The reasoning is very sound and the timing is excellent. Yesterday was the anniversary of the Wichita-Andover Tornado (5th strongest tornado since 1950). Today is the 9th anniversary of two of the top three. The #3-ranked tornado by intensity was the Hackleburg, Alabama, Tornado which occurred on this date in 2011. #2 was the Jarrell, Texas, tornado of 1997. #1 was the incredible Smithville, Mississippi, tornado of this date in 2011.  Four tornadoes that have played a role in my life (Ruskin Heights, Udall, Andover, and Greensburg) are all ranked as average or stronger than average F-5's. You can read more about those in my book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather .  The Joplin Tornado is ranked 21st and it is the topic o...

I agree with the sentiment expressed in this Wall Street Journal  headline: I also contend that, with the 2020 tornado and then hurricane seasons rapidly approaching, it is important to also plan for emergencies. Warnings  tells the upbeat, true story of how the tornado and hurricane warning systems came to be and the people who built them. When the Sirens Were Silent  is the story of how the warning system failed the people of Joplin, resulting in 161 deaths. It also tells how you can protect yourself whether at home, at work or at school.