"Meteorological studies suggest that rainfalls well in excess of those recorded in the floods of 1893 and 1974 are possible . Therefore it seems certain that unless major flood mitigation schemes, such as the proposed Wivenhoe Dam, are implemented,   floods even greater than those of 1974 will again be experienced in Brisbane ." Those words from a study from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately, those fears have played out since January 1. These devastating floods are not  records -- not even close. Here is a river stage graph via Roger Pielke, Jr . This horrible flood appears to be a case of putting more and more civilization into harm's way without sufficient thought given to the risk. A frequent theme of this blog is mitigating risks both natural and man-made. This tragedy serves as a reminder that we ignore these risks at our peril. Special thanks to Roger Pielke, Jr.

Another article  (subscription may be required) about worldwide food price and availability concerns: Prices of corn and soybeans leapt 4% Wednesday and wheat gained 1%, continuing the broad rally in commodity prices that began in June. With yesterday's gains, prices of corn futures contracts are now up 94% from their June lows; soybeans are up 51% and wheat is up 80%. The USDA's revisions reflect the impact of dry weather in South America and floods in Australia, which have compounded supply constraints that first started to emerge in the middle of last year, when a drought in Russia ravaged that country's wheat fields. The agency also cut estimates for U.S. harvests of corn and soybeans. Harvesting wheat in northern Kansas, 2010 This week's extreme cold in the winter wheat belt was not  taken into account in the reduced USDA estimates. Given the lack of snow cover in parts of Oklahoma, winterkill is a possibility which would further shrink supplies. We won'...

Did you know that there are bonds you can buy that help insurance companies raise capital in case of a hurricane-related catastrophe? In the last three years, with very low levels of tropical storm activity in the U.S., those bonds have paid off handsomely. Roger Pielke, Jr., thinks it may be time to short hurricane bonds because the "hurricane drought" will end one of these days, "perhaps in spectacular fashion." I don't know whether these bonds are even "short-able" but I agree with Roger that the hurricane drought will end, likely sooner than later.

As a person whose career is dedicated to mitigating risks, this is an excellent article about what should occur if a terrorist or rogue nation ever detonates a nuclear device in the U.S. The author is correct that it is not a 20 megaton hydrogen bomb (think Dr. Strangelove) blast we should fear (for which there is little we can do to save our lives) but rather a blast smaller than Hiroshima. We can do a lot to save our lives should the latter occur. The advice to have a full three day (minimum) supply of food, first aid supplies, etc., is excellent for storms, terrorism, hurricanes, or earthquakes. Kathleen and I follow it and I suggest you do, too. There is a movie trailer playing on TV where one of the characters says, "just because you choose not to believe in the devil does not protect you from him." Regardless of it being "unthinkable," there are likely evil people wanting or even planning such an event.  Proactive is always better than merely hoping for ...

This is the 10-day computer forecast from the European consortium and the airmass over central Canada is the coldest I have ever seen on a model. The forecast is valid at Friday, January 14th. If this forecast is correct, it will bring extreme cold (think December 1983) into the U.S. As posted below, I believe much of the U.S. east of the Rockies will turn sharply colder next week when compared to this week.  Confidence in that forecast is high. Whether the second frigid air mass depicted above actually develops, or whether it is an exaggeration by the computer models, is unknowable at this point. I'm posting this so you can keep it in the back of your mind for planning purposes.

Among many in the climate science community, global warming is a given. There is no consideration given to the earth losing heat and cooling. But is the chance of cooling really zero?  And, if it is not zero, what might the implications of cooling be? This is Part 2 of a three-part essay on global cooling. Part 1 is below. Lets examine whether the “consensus” regarding continued warming is well-founded.  World history is made up of cooling periods and warming periods. Here is a graph of temperatures for the last 2,000 years: The Roman Warm Period was in progress at the time of Christ. Temperatures plummeted a few centuries later. Rome fell as civilizations relocated to escape the cold. Temperatures warmed again about a thousand years ago. During the Medieval Warm Period, wine grapes were grown in Newfoundland and Leif Ericson set up a settlement in Greenland (which he described as “green”).  Over the next few centuries, temperatures dropped so much that the glaciers...

From CBS News: (CBS)   In this exclusive story,  CBS News chief investigative correspondent Armen Keteyian  reports the latest terror attack to America involves the possible use of poisons - simultaneous attacks targeting hotels and restaurants at many locations over a single weekend.  The plot uncovered earlier this year is said to involve the use of two poisons - ricin and cyanide - slipped into salad bars and buffets.  "We operate under the premise that individuals prepared to carry out terrorist acts are in this country," said Dec. of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano on Dec. 6, 2010. What next, grope searching garbanzo beans? I don't, for one moment, discount the threat that the U.S. faces. But, maybe if DHS focused our (yes, it is our money) resources on finding the specific individuals who might carry out a threat, as opposed to grope searching and nude-viewing of 70-year old grandmothers and the "homeland security threat" of 'climate cha...

In my "day job" as CEO of WeatherData Services, Inc. , my speciality is mitigating the risks posted by extreme weather and environmental conditions. The same risk mitigation strategies apply to just about any hazard, including those that are man-made. As a frequent business flier, I have written about the TSA's "security theatre" on a number of occasions (for example, here and here ) and on the TSA's outrageous violation of our privacy rights with its new grope searches and nude machines (examples here and here ). In spite of all of the theatre and inconvenience, security is markedly ineffective . Just yesterday, ABC News reported that a loaded gun a passenger forgot was in his carryon bag got through security in Houston (an airport with nude machines)! Unfortunately, up until now, most media articles on the subject have been little more than rewrites of the TSA's "talking points" for reporters. At last, The Washington Post  has written ...

Star-Tribune photo of snow clearing in the Twin Cities. In Chicago, more than 1,700 flights were cancelled and, of those remaining, the average delay was more than five hours!

A few people have responded to my TSA postings with (paraphrasing), “anything to be safe.” I understand the desire to be "safe." What I don't understand is this: From September 12, 2001 to October 31, 2010 (the last day of the old TSA procedures) here is what the statistics looked like: Deaths due to tornadoes in U.S.:  533 Deaths due to being shot while hunting in U.S.: 900 (approximate, but close) Deaths due to terrorism in U.S.: Zero Keeping in mind that the underwear bomber, liquids plot, shoe bomber, and toner cartridges all originated outside the U.S. The toner cartridges were cargo, of course. Please help me to understand why you believe this ratcheting up of surveillance of passengers on November 1 is justified. Storm chasing continues, and is growing, in spite of the hazard (i.e., there are companies that take paying customers out to watch storms). I don’t know of any serious person who proposes outlawing hunting because of the hazards. We do not ins...

I didn't see this until this morning. This is a "controlled" demolition where the smokestack is supposed to fall toward the northeast but, instead, falls to the south. As the stack hits the powerlines, you can see the blue flash that is often observed when lightning hits a powerline or when one is toppled by high winds.

On a number of occasions I have written about airport security. If you would like to read some of my previous postings go here  or here . I've known about Michael Bennett, the ExpressJet pilot who finally had enough of the TSA's overreach, for several days. I haven't written about it until now because I wanted to hear the TSA's side of the story. Now that I have read their statement, here goes... Mr. Bennett's side of the story is the first posting here . Basically, he was going through the checkpoint on his way to his flight (he was piloting). He went through the metal detector and it did not alarm. Regardless, they directed him to go through the porn-o-scope. He refused. Keep in mind that pilots can legally take guns  into the cockpit. So, the porn-o-scope, as it pertains to the flight crew, is pure "theatre." But, the bigger issue, for all of us, is giving up our liberties for little or no gain. The porn-o-scopes (which provide a detailed view un...

Kathleen and I have done most of these .  Have you?

Click here .

Ever watched television or listened to radio and, just as the critical point in the program or a favorite musical passage comes on, it is interrupted by the annoying tones of the F.C.C. and Department of Homeland Security's " Emergency Alert System " (EAS)? When I was a child in the 1950's, there was a system called CONELRAD that was to alert us in case of nuclear attack. And, perhaps in the 1950's, it made sense to have that system. But today? CONELRAD has morphed into a giant white elephant called EAS. The EAS says it is designed to allow the President access to the airwaves within ten minutes in case of emergency. Fine. But, why do we need EAS? Can't the President just call up the networks?  Think back to September 11, 2001. President Bush was in Florida. As the airplanes struck, all of the networks began covering the story without any help from the President or government. They did it because it was news. No EAS notification was made. Cuban Missil...

Hurricane Earl at a time when it was moving directly toward Florida (upper left) Remember last week at this time when Category 4 Hurricane Earl was threatening the East Coast of the United States? The memory has probably already started to fade because Earl just brushed the coast at the outer banks of North Carolina and far east Massachusetts. Total coastal miles put under hurricane warnings? According to the NOAA's National Hurricane Center, 450. There were no mass evacuations, just some selective evacuations in areas most threatened by the storm. Earl was an inconvenience, not a disaster -- just as it should have been, right? Rewind 11 years. Above is a photo of Category 5 Hurricane Floyd in roughly the same geographic position as Earl. In 1999, virtually the entire East Coast of the U.S. was put under a hurricane warning. Again, according to NHC (thanks, Dennis Feltgen), the number of coastal miles of hurricane warning was 1,500.  There were mass evacuations that overwhel...

...and other disasters, as well. Click here for more.

Stories like this give meteorologists nightmares... BILOXI, Miss. —Robert Latham spent Aug. 27, 2005, riding along U.S. 90 from Jackson County to Hancock County along Mississippi's Gulf Coast, marveling at the number of people grilling, swimming and playing volleyball on the beach. They seemed oblivious to the monster storm that churned in the Gulf of Mexico, headed their way. By the time Katrina departed, 168 were killed in Hancock Co. and the surrounding area. After what has been a quiet hurricane season for the U.S. in 2010 looks like it is going to turn very active from roughly Thursday of this week through the end of the Labor Day weekend.  At leas two storms could conceivably threaten the U.S. Meteorologists know that people on vacation often problems keeping up with weather information and have problems evaluating it because some are not familiar with the geography, local TV and radio stations, etc.  For this reason, I am urging anyone planning to vacation alon...

Former New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin was interviewed by Matt Lauer on NBC's "Today" show this morning. He again stated that he didn't order a mandatory evacuation because they didn't know Katrina was headed for New Orleans until Max Mayfield called him at home Saturday evening August 27th (Katrina struck on Monday morning). I tell the behind-the-scenes story of what went wrong during and after Katrina in Warnings . Below are the National Hurricane Center's public forecast maps from 4am and 10am Saturday, August 27, 2005. Both show Katrina moving right over New Orleans. Mayfield called Nagin because Mayfield was shocked that Nagin had not ordered a mandatory evacuation. Nagin should have ordered a mandatory evacuation by 11am Saturday -- he waited nearly 24 more hours to do so (10:30am Sunday)! The fact that more did not leave New Orleans is due to Nagin, not to the meteorologists! UPDATE:  The interview can be viewed here . I entirely agree with one po...

As I was viewing web sites in my hotel room last night, I came across this from the Carl Pope , the chairman of the Sierra Club. August 10, 2010 Martha's Vineyard, MA -- I certainly can't complain about the weather this week. It's gorgeous on Cape Cod, a good place this summer to escape from the exceptional chill of California's summer this year. But the newspaper suggests that globally that's not the norm. Heat waves in Russia have led to massive fires in parts of the country that are usually too wet to burn, to the loss of 30 percent of that nation's wheat crop, and to a ban on grain exports from one of the world's major producers. It's either Russia's worst heat wave in 130 years or, if you believe some commentators, in a thousand. Regardless, the death rate in Moscow has doubled. In Pakistan, the already fragile regime of President Zardari has been pushed into even greater instability by unprecedented floods that have displaced 14 million p...