I Had No Idea You Had to Be a Climatologist and Oceanographer to be a Clinical Psychologist

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"We Didn't Know This Flood Was Coming"

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[Note, no more updates to this story as of 1pm Tuesday;  there is an updated story here .] ...so said the chief executive of Kerr County, Texas, Rob Kelly. He went on to say, "We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here, none whatsoever."  I'm sorry to report that he is probably correct. The flood was underforecast and the "emergency" warnings were later than they could have been. In fairness, as of the time of this update, 1:30pm Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey has determined this was the highest crest on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas, since the river gauge was installed.  As of 1p Tuesday , 105  have been confirmed to have been killed and "dozens" are missing. Those numbers imply a total death toll near 130. This past autumn, Hurricane Helene killed 249. In 2011, a single tornado killed 161 in Joplin. We must stop these mega-disasters! This is another tragic example of why America desperately n...
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Tornado Forecast Update at 2am Wednesday

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2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage.  Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today.  1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night.  11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas.  This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about.  I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
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