For atmospheric physics reasons I won't got into, the weather is less predictable in summer than it is in the winter. So ten day rainfall forecasts should be viewed with more than a grain of salt. However, because a number of people, today, have been asking about the rainfall amount forecasts for the corn and soybean areas, here is the ECMWF's model's forecast rainfall amounts for the next ten days. Great Plains Midwest South click to see entire map In many areas, the predicted amounts are below average, especially in the Midwest. The two weeks have seen rainfall percents quite a bit lower than normal. Given the dryness already in progress and the potential for continued dryness, the concerns about inadequate moisture seem well-founded. 

Believe it or not, there hasn't been a tornado or tornado watch in central Kansas this year. It is the second farthest into a year without a tornado (the record is July 2). So, because this is the first risk of the season, I'm providing this heads up today. I'll also provide at least one update tomorrow. The brown area has a significant risk of a couple of tornadoes. There is a significant risk of wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher in the yellow area. An enhanced risk exists in the red area. Isolated power failures may occur. UPDATE: While on the topic, here is the forecast rainfall from this afternoon through 7pm Tuesday. Other than a few areas west of U.S. 83, the wheat harvest will continue to be stalled through the middle of next week.

The National Weather Service's Amarillo office took quite a picture of a downburst at 4:02pm CDT this afternoon (hat tip: Mark Fox). Here is the raw image. It becomes even more impressive when the air flow is superimposed. A downburst, discovered by Dr. Ted Fujita after his examination of the crash of Eastern Airlines Flight 66 in 1975, is an extreme hazard to aviation due to wind shear in both the horizontal and vertical. On radar, nothing ominous is present on radar at 3:52pm. click to enlarge The black circle is the location of the radar at the airport. That is the location of the photo. The left is the "reflectivity data" which depicts how hard it is raining. This is the type of radar display you typically see on television.  On the right is the Doppler wind velocity data. Nothing unusual there, either.  At 3:57, a core of intense rain, with some hail, makes its presence known (black oval, left). It is rapidly descending through the thunderstorm...

Wednesday, the CDC was telling us about tornado warnings while using a fake picture of a tornado. Now this. It is  not  satire. Published yesterday: Our hard-earned tax dollars were just wasted to determine that heat deaths are more common where its hot than in, say, North Dakota. The next sentence is a real gem. Yeah, I needed tax dollars to be spent to tell me heat-related deaths don't occur in Montana in winter. What could be behind this nonsense? After all, I would think the CDC would be kind of busy with other things right now.  We find the likely answer toward the end. It is likely this study is intended as some sort of marker upon which to build global warming hype. Unbelievable. The CDC is obviously overstaffed and overfunded. It needs to be dismantled. In its place should be a small group of highly dedicated professionals who want to, you know, actually control disease.

Here is the rainfall (radar + rain gauge estimate) through 11am CDT. For all intents and purposes this has stopped the harvest in Kansas and Oklahoma. Just got a report from Cowley Co. (southeast of Wichita) of yields up to an amazing 76 bushels/acre which is a bin-buster crop. That is part of the reason I am so sorry to set it stopped at this time. Rain continues to fall (radar as of 12:17pm). The rainfall forecast from two reliable models through sunrise Monday show more moderate to heavy rain over this area. I would expect the rains, in their entirety, to stall the harvest north of the Red River until at least Thursday of next week. Even worse, the forecast from 7am Sunday to 7am Monday shows scattered hailstorms in the yellow tinted area. Hail, of course, would destroy the ripe wheat. The good news: this rain is great for corn, soybeans and second crop grain sorghum. Those crops, because are somewhat less vulnerable to hail at this point as compared to wheat. 

Found this farmer harvesting his wheat south of Cassoday, Kansas, this evening. The combine cuts the head off the stalk and ejects the chaff. You can see the line of thunderstorms we've been forecasting (scroll down) in the background. About 2" of rain is forecast for the area from late tonight through Sunday night, not to mention the potential for hailstorms which could destroy any wheat still to be harvested. The combine off-loads the wheat into a waiting truck which takes it either for farm storage or, more likely, to a grain elevator which will handle the transaction of selling the wheat to an end user and paying the farmer. Just to the south, the sun slipped behind the line of thunderstorms as a hawk patrols El Dorado Lake. Update: As of 8:45am, that area received 1.5 inches of rain. An additional two inches is forecast from now until Monday morning. The wheat harvest is halted until the rain moves out and the fields dry. 

... some meteorologists and climatologists are displaying 'stripes' of temperatures today. This one is pretty typical. Some are broken down by states. Supposedly, blue = good and red = bad. Warmer weather = bad for humanity = both bad science and bad sociology. Prior to the onset of COVID-19, Meteorological famine had nearly disappeared from the lexicon. The longer growing seasons associated warmer weather, when combined with the Green Revolution, has nearly eliminated giant crop failures. It would be impossible to feed earth's 7.8 billion people if temperatures were to revert to blue levels.  Because far more energy is used for heating than cooling, consumer energy costs have dropped. And, most important of all, extreme poverty is at its lowest rate in world history .  All of this made possible by a warmer climate.  On a related topic, this was tweeted earlier today.  We've dealt with the sea level rise hype a number of times (see this piec...