This tragedy is not one bit a unique experience for Texas and surely all other riverine territories. As the decades go by fresh generations arise and repeat the experiences of their predecessors. And human nature repeats itself disaster after disaster. Young and ignorant. That typifies the human experience. These Hill Country rivers share the same flooding risk as any stream located on sharp valleys and are subject to narrow though deep flooding events that raise floods surprisingly high up the enclosing steeply rising valley slopes. Do the parents of the lost children sue without sharing some of the same responsibility for their ignorance and failure of foresight as those of the same generation of property owners operating the riverside youth camps? Did they even begin to imagine such hazards as presented for the circumstances they were injecting their children. These floods always happen to someone else. That is, until they happen t6o you or yours. They don't happen with sufficient frequency in one location to keep the current locals on guard.
I have observed the same tendencies with regard to hurricanes. I've observed them since 1940. Hurricanes make their visits from time to time with no regular predictability cleaning the beaches of most its establishments whether they are artifices produced by human or natural causes. There the beaches remain bare until a new crop of people arrive and naively start building for a repeat experience,
We the living human creatures blissfully assume that today's safety exemplifies all of our future, failing to see the multitude of graves filled by equally blissful ancestors certain that it is always the other fellow that suffers. But, let the falling curtain expose my naivety, my so human ignorance and frailty along with my fellow citizen, then it is all his fault entirely and singly. He took my money and gave me deaths.
I have myself canoed and camped on such rivers. One of them had previously seen the deaths of Boy Scouts occurring under the very same kind of circumstances. With such experiences in mind one does well to pay attention to the choice of campground with respect to distance above the usual level of such a river. I have seen flood water marks on a house that one would deem safely sitting on high ground along with three and four foot diameter Bald Cypress trees broken off like match sticks with survivors housing a grand piano and an automobile or so.
Ma nature ain't always rainbows and sweet little bunnies. When she bites hard and we are not safely hiding, we are like a mistakenly punished child, helpless to retaliate, it is pitiful to watch childish anger beating up on some other equally helpless and ignorantly trusting victim. We ain't all as decades old as I am.
More heavy rain (snow in the mountains) forecast. Rains have already begun over the southern two-thirds of the state. See 3:15pm radar below. In addition, there is small risk of a tornado, especially tomorrow morning, in coastal areas of Southern California, shown in dark green.
[Note, no more updates to this story as of 1pm Tuesday; there is an updated story here .] ...so said the chief executive of Kerr County, Texas, Rob Kelly. He went on to say, "We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here, none whatsoever." I'm sorry to report that he is probably correct. The flood was underforecast and the "emergency" warnings were later than they could have been. In fairness, as of the time of this update, 1:30pm Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey has determined this was the highest crest on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas, since the river gauge was installed. As of 1p Tuesday , 105 have been confirmed to have been killed and "dozens" are missing. Those numbers imply a total death toll near 130. This past autumn, Hurricane Helene killed 249. In 2011, a single tornado killed 161 in Joplin. We must stop these mega-disasters! This is another tragic example of why America desperately n...
2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage. Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today. 1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night. 11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas. This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about. I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert . --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
This tragedy is not one bit a unique experience for Texas and surely all other riverine territories. As the decades go by fresh generations arise and repeat the experiences of their predecessors. And human nature repeats itself disaster after disaster. Young and ignorant. That typifies the human experience. These Hill Country rivers share the same flooding risk as any stream located on sharp valleys and are subject to narrow though deep flooding events that raise floods surprisingly high up the enclosing steeply rising valley slopes. Do the parents of the lost children sue without sharing some of the same responsibility for their ignorance and failure of foresight as those of the same generation of property owners operating the riverside youth camps? Did they even begin to imagine such hazards as presented for the circumstances they were injecting their children. These floods always happen to someone else. That is, until they happen t6o you or yours. They don't happen with sufficient frequency in one location to keep the current locals on guard.
ReplyDeleteI have observed the same tendencies with regard to hurricanes. I've observed them since 1940. Hurricanes make their visits from time to time with no regular predictability cleaning the beaches of most its establishments whether they are artifices produced by human or natural causes. There the beaches remain bare until a new crop of people arrive and naively start building for a repeat experience,
We the living human creatures blissfully assume that today's safety exemplifies all of our future, failing to see the multitude of graves filled by equally blissful ancestors certain that it is always the other fellow that suffers. But, let the falling curtain expose my naivety, my so human ignorance and frailty along with my fellow citizen, then it is all his fault entirely and singly. He took my money and gave me deaths.
I have myself canoed and camped on such rivers. One of them had previously seen the deaths of Boy Scouts occurring under the very same kind of circumstances. With such experiences in mind one does well to pay attention to the choice of campground with respect to distance above the usual level of such a river. I have seen flood water marks on a house that one would deem safely sitting on high ground along with three and four foot diameter Bald Cypress trees broken off like match sticks with survivors housing a grand piano and an automobile or so.
Ma nature ain't always rainbows and sweet little bunnies. When she bites hard and we are not safely hiding, we are like a mistakenly punished child, helpless to retaliate, it is pitiful to watch childish anger beating up on some other equally helpless and ignorantly trusting victim. We ain't all as decades old as I am.