Thanks so much for the detailed projected rainfall maps! It gives us some hope out here West of Wichita. This really is it as far as having a chance of getting the wheat up and well-stooled prior to dormancy. Getting a good stand is the first step on the road to next year's hoped-for harvest.
I do worry about the multi-year drought scenario. Looking at Climatological Data, I believe we had worse droughts than what we had in the 30s and 50s as recently as the 1870s and 1890s.
The last thirty years of climate cycle has really fooled a lot of people as to what this area is capable of in regards to extended dryness.
More heavy rain (snow in the mountains) forecast. Rains have already begun over the southern two-thirds of the state. See 3:15pm radar below. In addition, there is small risk of a tornado, especially tomorrow morning, in coastal areas of Southern California, shown in dark green.
[Note, no more updates to this story as of 1pm Tuesday; there is an updated story here .] ...so said the chief executive of Kerr County, Texas, Rob Kelly. He went on to say, "We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here, none whatsoever." I'm sorry to report that he is probably correct. The flood was underforecast and the "emergency" warnings were later than they could have been. In fairness, as of the time of this update, 1:30pm Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey has determined this was the highest crest on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas, since the river gauge was installed. As of 1p Tuesday , 105 have been confirmed to have been killed and "dozens" are missing. Those numbers imply a total death toll near 130. This past autumn, Hurricane Helene killed 249. In 2011, a single tornado killed 161 in Joplin. We must stop these mega-disasters! This is another tragic example of why America desperately n...
2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage. Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today. 1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night. 11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas. This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about. I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert . --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
Thanks so much for the detailed projected rainfall maps! It gives us some hope out here West of Wichita. This really is it as far as having a chance of getting the wheat up and well-stooled prior to dormancy. Getting a good stand is the first step on the road to next year's hoped-for harvest.
ReplyDeleteI do worry about the multi-year drought scenario. Looking at Climatological Data, I believe we had worse droughts than what we had in the 30s and 50s as recently as the 1870s and 1890s.
The last thirty years of climate cycle has really fooled a lot of people as to what this area is capable of in regards to extended dryness.
Thank you for the comment. Well said.
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