I've been debating responding to this post ever since I saw it early yesterday morning. My original intention was to make a blog post and direct my response there. I may still do that...
However, why should I give any credence to Mr. Bastardi's winter weather forecast when his original forecast was incorrect? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40340/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-1.asp)
The south has been very cold, snow fall across a large portion of the south is well above normal, with prospects for more snow in the coming days (and probably weeks) as we are locked into a strongly negative AO and positive PNA (as is reflected in the latest forecast graphics from Mr. Bastardi).
You rail about climate scientists making long range forecasts and tout the fact that we struggle with the short-term. (Several recent posts illustrate that fact, especially the post sparking our previous discussion and one from earlier today (22 January). So why now are you advocating someone's seasonal forecast? Especially when his original forecast was incorrect.
This is a fair comment and I welcome it. I'll answer in two parts..
BASTARDI. I have seen some rather amazing forecasts from Joe verify, even some that were completely different than the NWS's. You are correct that his initial 2010-11 winter forecast was way off. While I believe Joe is a better than average long range forecaster, I do not believe that he has a great deal of "skill" as defined in meteorology.
CLIMATE FORECASTS. I have not seen Joe attempt to make forecasts more than six months out. As mentioned above, there isn't a great deal of skill there. Logically, if we cannot make consistent forecasts at six months, there is no reason to believe we can do so at 60 years.
But, go back to the 2004 IPCC report. They issued a forecast out to 2100 with 95% error bars. Much of the time since that report was issued, temperatures are outside the confidence interval on the low side.
But, if we look at the high-profile climate forecasts (west side of Manhattan under water by 2000, no more snow for UK, etc., etc.), they have been spectacular failures.
To me, this is sufficient to nullify the hypothesis that we can forecast the climate decades in advance.
Thank you for coming to read my tornado coverage from Saturday and Saturday night. As there were about 100,000 brand new readers, please allow me to introduce myself. I the retired Sr. VP of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions and retired Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. Specialized for 50 years in extreme weather forecasts and warnings. I invite you to bookmark this site: https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/ Timely forecasts of tornadoes, floods, blizzards and hurricanes are provided. On slower weather days we talk about global warming, science and issues of interest to society. On Sundays, we usually lighten things a bit. For real-time storm warning bulletins, you can follow me here: @usweatherexpert . Thanks again for reading! ---Last night's Coverage --- After 16 straight hours, I must call it a night. All of the information below is current as of 1:10am. Thank you for reading and goodnight. As of 12:35am, much of south central Oklahoma has no electr
Unfortunately, the forecast is working out. A tornado watch is already in effect in Oklahoma and Texas. This watch is in effect until 1pm. Thunderstorms are developing in the southeast Texas Panhandle. They will move northeast and strengthen. Please keep a close eye on the weather in these areas. I'll have comprehensive forecast up in 60-90 minutes.
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding. Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map. In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state. Here is the updated (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state. The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Mike,
ReplyDeleteI've been debating responding to this post ever since I saw it early yesterday morning. My original intention was to make a blog post and direct my response there. I may still do that...
However, why should I give any credence to Mr. Bastardi's winter weather forecast when his original forecast was incorrect? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40340/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-1.asp)
The south has been very cold, snow fall across a large portion of the south is well above normal, with prospects for more snow in the coming days (and probably weeks) as we are locked into a strongly negative AO and positive PNA (as is reflected in the latest forecast graphics from Mr. Bastardi).
You rail about climate scientists making long range forecasts and tout the fact that we struggle with the short-term. (Several recent posts illustrate that fact, especially the post sparking our previous discussion and one from earlier today (22 January). So why now are you advocating someone's seasonal forecast? Especially when his original forecast was incorrect.
Patrick,
ReplyDeleteThis is a fair comment and I welcome it. I'll answer in two parts..
BASTARDI. I have seen some rather amazing forecasts from Joe verify, even some that were completely different than the NWS's. You are correct that his initial 2010-11 winter forecast was way off. While I believe Joe is a better than average long range forecaster, I do not believe that he has a great deal of "skill" as defined in meteorology.
CLIMATE FORECASTS. I have not seen Joe attempt to make forecasts more than six months out. As mentioned above, there isn't a great deal of skill there. Logically, if we cannot make consistent forecasts at six months, there is no reason to believe we can do so at 60 years.
But, go back to the 2004 IPCC report. They issued a forecast out to 2100 with 95% error bars. Much of the time since that report was issued, temperatures are outside the confidence interval on the low side.
But, if we look at the high-profile climate forecasts (west side of Manhattan under water by 2000, no more snow for UK, etc., etc.), they have been spectacular failures.
To me, this is sufficient to nullify the hypothesis that we can forecast the climate decades in advance.
Mike