Aviation Advice

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If you are new to the blog, I have advice for people trying to fly during periods of winter storms.

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Tornado Forecast Update at 2am Wednesday

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2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage.  Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today.  1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night.  11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas.  This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about.  I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
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"Particularly Dangerous Situation" - Update 5:35pm

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A major windstorm is forecast for Oklahoma and Texas Sunday.  This has the potential to cause widespread power failures.  Please prepare now. More information below.  5:35pm:  Particularly Dangerous Situation watch due to wind gusts forecast to reach 105 mph and  with hail 5" in diameter. Tornadoes also possible.  If you live in a mobile home, now is the time to determine your sheltering situation. I urge you to shelter before warnings are issued (spend the evening with friends or family). Power outages are likely. A mobile vehicle from the National Severe Storms Laboratory has already measured a gust of 90 mph! 3:05pm Update: Computer models have consistently increased their forecasts of peak wind gusts pertaining to north central Texas this evening. Wind gusts of 110 mph are possible. If correct, widespread power outages are likely.  First Watch of the Day Pertaining to the  Derecho   In addition to the threat of tornadoes, wind gusts of 80...
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Tornado and Destructive Wind Risk Late This Afternoon and Tonight

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It is imperative residents of the central Great Plains use the forecast to prepare for damaging winds and, perhaps, a tornado or two.  Tornado Risk The brown area has been moved south into northern Oklahoma and now includes Bartlesville, Ponca City, Enid, and Stillwater, in addition to the cities shown. In Missouri, it includes Joplin and Nevada.  Destructive Thunderstorm Winds Here is the color code: Pink and hatched: High  risk of destructive winds of 75 mph or stronger.  Red and hatched: Enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow: Significant risk of winds 60 mph or stronger.  If you live in the red or pink areas, I urge  you to prepare for the potential for power outages, some could last a day or more. Bring in lawn furniture or trampolines which could blow about and crash into other objects -- increasing damage. Put your car in the garage or carport. 
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