The forecast is unchanged since earlier this morning (Hawaiian time). The storm is still expected to be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Kauai and Niihau.  Here is the outlook for those two islands: Storm surge 1-3 feet. Dangerous, life-threatening surf, especially on the south and west beaches.  Flooding rains possible with as much as 10" of rain. The rains will begin Sunday afternoon and continue until midweek. Note: 10" also possible The Big Island.  Landslides possible. Note: it has been my experience that airlines sometimes cancel flights -- where cancellations are not necessary -- when dealing with hurricanes. It would not surprise me at all to see flights cancelled to Lihue, Kauai, before this is over. If you want to leave, I recommend you leave asap. 

Wall Street Journal Are you kidding?! This is insane. The mergers of Continental + United and Northwest + Delta never  should have been approved for antitrust/oligopoly reasons. Those mergers, along with U.S. Air + American have killed competition and have directly led to flying being the terrible experience it is today. The 'leaders' of the airlines can't manage what they have; what makes them believe they can manage a vastly bigger company?! Of course, these mergers never seem to bring the "synergy" that is promised so they end up cutting people and service.  When you combine these "too big to care" airlines with Congress being influenced by the airline lobby to make it practically impossible to hold the airlines accountable -- no matter how egregious their behavior -- it makes our airline experience worse than many "second world" airlines.  For our 50th wedding anniversary, we purchased first class tickets on American. Good thing we did! The...

From Twitter/X yesterday afternoon With the 250th Independence Day period next week, there will be millions  of Americans heading to the airports and inevitably giant problems with develop -- especially if the weather is bad.  The airlines do everything they can to fill flights to 100% -- which means there are few extra seats for you if your flight is cancelled.  More than ever, you cannot afford to be passive in these situations. You are far more likely to get a successful or somewhat successful resolution if you 1) research and 2) speak-up. With regard to the above, AA Flight 2117 is from DFW to Orlando. It was delayed more than four hours and -- more often than not -- those delays only get worse. The other flights to Orlando are also delayed.  If I were at DFW, and considering the flight is not supposed to take off until significantly after midnight, I would be worried my flight will be cancelled after all of that waiting. Then, things could turn into days of wait...

These are all from my Twitter/X feed yesterday morning. What do these have in common? All of the major airlines in the U.S. are terrible.  While we often hear the airlines were "deregulated" during the Carter Administration, they really weren't. They were allowed to choose where they fly and a few other things but they are otherwise heavily regulated. For safety, regulation is fine. For everything else, it's bad.  For example: Suppose a startup airline's customer research said that many businesspeople would pay extra for an airline that allowed three carryons? Might be a great marketing niche. And, suppose they worked with Boeing to create additional safe and secure storage for the extra bags? Great, huh? WRONG!! The legacy airlines have lobbied the FAA to put two carryons and much more that would snuff out innovation into the law. Innovating in the airline industry is practically impossible. So, all we get is cheaper tickets -- which translate to incredibly bad ...

Now that they have merged with Hawaiian, Alaska Airlines has a new livery (paint scheme) that is just beautiful.  Congratulations. 

Do you get a sensitive stomach in turbulent weather when flying? Do you wonder whether you eat lunch before takeoff when the weather may be questionable? There's a web site   that offers free turbulence forecasts for airline passengers.  I have not flown with it yet but I'll let you know when I do so.  Link was broken, now fixed. 

USAir 1016's wreckage on the west side of Charlotte-Douglas International Airport Many times, we have discussed the terrible airline crashes caused by downbursts. Examples, here and here . Several times this summer, there has been significant downburst damage to towns and cities.  But, Ted Fujita's discovery was important to atmospheric science in other ways. Kathleen and I were cleaning out some files last week and ran across this.  Notice the sub-headline, Tornado May Have Hit Trailer Park.   The local emergency management and National Weather Service personnel informally agreed to call the damage a tornado because there wasn't anything else, they thought, to call it. The problem was there was no "hook echo" (this was well before Doppler), the atmosphere over south central Kansas was not conductive to tornadoes, and no one saw a funnel cloud.  Just five months earlier, Dr. Ted Fujita and his mentor, Dr. Horace Byers, published their landmark paper in Monthly We...

You've probably heard about the Southwest (SWA) flight from Las Vegas to Oklahoma City that dropped to ~500 feet altitude over the suburb of Yukon Tuesday night. The plane landed safely at Will Rogers World Airport at 12:21am Wednesday (19th).  It came to my attention that there are some speculating that it was downburst or a "gust front" that caused the plane to drop. There was one comment that said it looked like the 1985 crash of Delta Flight 191 in Dallas.  As the meteorological expert in one of the trials involving Delta 191 , I can say with certainty that it was not a downburst or microburst that caused the loss of altitude. In fact, weather doesn't appear to have played any part in the incident. Here's my evidence: The Sky Was Non-Threatening  Above is a screen capture from a video showing the SWA flight (arrow) near Yukon. At left are a few cumulus clouds possibly associated with the 68°F dew point at Will Rogers (WR). There was a level jet stream as th...

One of the best pieces SNL has done in a long time.  And, if you think a plug-door coming off was scary, trying flying Alaska to the North Slope to land a 737 on the tundra. Been there -- and, don't want to do it again!

Every other year, our family takes a vacation together. Based on the Southwest (and, to a lesser extent, other airlines') meltdown over the Christmas-New Year's period, I decided the airline industry was too undependable this year. So, we choose a city to where we could drive (except for two of us). That meant the airlines lost nine round-trip fares. I'm sure they don't care about that specifically, but here is the point: I'm aware of others who are choosing not to fly.  Forbes, 2022 Business travel was airlines'  most profitable  category of traveler. One has to wonder how many lost travelers it is going to take before the airline industry is seriously wounded. 

Forget what you've read recently about clear air turbulence and global warming.  Clear air turbulence is a small scale phenomena. The model used to "forecast" it has a resolution of 70 (!) miles.  And, real data need not apply. There was no attempt to correlate actual reports of clear air turbulence with what the model indicates should be extant.  More fear-mongering. 

Conditions in NYC are so bad that "ground stops" are in effect at LaGuardia and Newark International this afternoon causing major  flight delays. That may spread south to Philadelphia during the afternoon. The lights in Time Square have illuminated as if it were night. The amount of smoke is off the chart with today and yesterday's values in red.  The health conditions are literally off the chart.  For those unfamiliar with the usual midday appearance of NYC, below are images of a typical day and from a little while ago. The usual suspects are, of course, blaming this on global warming. My thoughts are here . There is one indirect way climate change (human or natural variability) climate change could have affected the fires and that pertains to the ones that were started by lightning. Lightning seems to be more frequent at the latitude of northern Quebec than it used to be. Because of the remote area and the scale of the fires, humans cannot extinguish them. They will hav...

Here is the latest forecast snowfall values for the upcoming winter storm.  First, the forecast radar. It is valid at 10am Wednesday. Forecast Radar 10am Wednesday Color codes: Blue = snow. Darker blues are heavier rates of falling snow. Pink and purple = Sleet, freezing rain and mixed rain/snow. Green = rain. Yellow and red = thunderstorms. There is a risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the south. See below. Snow Amounts The snow amount forecast is valid from this evening until 6pm Thursday. I don't think the wind will be  a major factor, so I am not expecting significant drifting of the snow. However, it will cause major travel difficulties. If you are traveling through the airports at Denver, Omaha and, to a lesser extent Minneapolis, please consider modifying your plans to avoid the storm. For example, the snow will begin after:      DEN:             4-8"              Snow s...

Here is the forecast precipitation between 6pm CST this evening to 6pm CST on Monday, January 2nd.  As you can see, this is forecast to be a very active period. I would expect I-80 to be closed across the Sierra at least once. I also believe the snow band across the Great Plains (arrow) may end up occurring at least a bit father south than indicated.  Given the meltdown at Southwest Airlines , I would be extremely reluctant to fly them during this period with at least two more coast-to-coast storms on tap. I would also be proactive and have "Plan B" reservations in mind in case yours get cancelled (i.e., you'll find airline reps are often happier if you have something in mind rather than asking them to fish the reservation system for you), regardless of airline. While the timing during a holiday travel period is lousy, it is great that this moisture will put a significant dent in the drought in the West.  Also, thunderstorms, some strong, will be numerous in the area outl...

Yesterday, I reviewed the River Spirit Resort and Casino where Kathleen and I went to celebrate our wedding anniversary. We decided we didn't want to fly. These days, the photo below summarizes how I feel when flying -- not to mention the delays, gate changes, et cetera.  It doesn't have to be this way! On our honeymoon we went to Hawaii on " 747 Braniff Place " (the airlines in that era named their planes similar to cruise ships). The experience in coach was better then than today's first class.  This is the section in which we sat. Look at the leg room! The group of seats in the middle was five-across. Before they retired the 747's, most airlines were seven-across.  We were offered the choice of three hot entrees for lunch. Then, a couple of hours before landing, they set up a buffet in the back! Everyone was courteous and pleasant.  But, many say, "without deregulation, people could not afford to fly." I take issue with this. The airlines today ha...

This is yet another example of the Airline Lie pertaining to weather as we endure yet another day with hundreds of airline flights cancelled.  The 5:45p CDT weather map is a late June dream for the airlines.  I surmise this is occurring because the airlines have reached the end of the month and are out of employees that have sufficient "hours of service" left. Whether it is pilots, flight attendants or dispatchers, the Federal Aviation Administration has strict limits on sleep and on-duty hours that cannot be exceeded. Given how short-handed they are , I suspect this is the true reason.  It is appalling how little actual reporting news agencies do these days. Whatever the reason for all of the cancellations, it isn't bad weather. 

Why does anyone take him seriously?

These have come in during the last three days . They are in no order. Newsom = Governor of California COVID is very  low risk to children, much less than the flu. I would not vaccinate my children nor would I have  them wear masks.  Yesterday Today. Moron . Huh?! This doesn't seem right .  Airline stupidity is off the charts these days. I love Coke and I know exactly which finger I would display I have completely stopped flying until this nonsense is over (remember, the airlines say their filtration removes 99.7% ofthe virus). I am supposed to drive nine hours one-way this  weekend. I used to that city 100% of the time. And, I am certain every one of those lobbying firms  is working to advance the public interest. 🙄 This is why the  federal government  MUST be dispersed . Isn't this a food that greatly increases greenhouse gas? Also, can anyone translate the second sentence? I have absolutely no doubt the result will be that you and I m...