tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post3449538945067924293..comments2024-03-28T14:54:34.646-05:00Comments on MSE CREATIVE CONSULTING BLOG: Joplin's Curious Post-Storm BehaviorMike Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-76361428865022460962012-09-17T10:16:13.505-05:002012-09-17T10:16:13.505-05:00Ahh... Totally different story. My fault for assum...Ahh... Totally different story. My fault for assuming otherwise!<br /><br />Stupid.Rob Dalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00132449143586969553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-65552393096277618812012-09-17T10:10:34.393-05:002012-09-17T10:10:34.393-05:00Sirens went off in Joplin.Sirens went off in Joplin.Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-86266881363108882402012-09-17T10:00:50.178-05:002012-09-17T10:00:50.178-05:00Until we can pick up the difference between a 60mp...Until we can pick up the difference between a 60mph tornado and a 100mph tornado, I think that's just the nature of the beast. I stand with the 75+mph criteria we developed as a best practice.<br /><br />And so we're on the same page - we aren't talking "Joplin" proper since they were never under any of the extreme SVR warnings. The sirens in Joplin should not have ever been activated during any of this. The warning only included a very small slice of southeast Jasper county, so Joplin shouldn't have heard a thing. Is that what happened?Rob Dalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00132449143586969553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-57028100718665718272012-09-17T08:35:31.895-05:002012-09-17T08:35:31.895-05:00Your point about a derecho with 100 mph winds is w...Your point about a derecho with 100 mph winds is well-taken. But, derechoes often spawn tornadoes so I have no problem with activation in that case. <br /><br />The threat level from a 65 mph gust -- other than to illegally untied mobile homes -- whether from a tornado or straight wind is so low that I don't want sirens on regardless of cause. But, we don't have a perfect science. So, to keep "siren fatigue" from setting it, I'd like to make sure we sound them for tornadoes but waive sounding them except in derecho situations. <br /><br />Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-34685764720163026032012-09-17T08:23:27.073-05:002012-09-17T08:23:27.073-05:00I absolutely agree that Joplin's siren policy ...I absolutely agree that Joplin's siren policy is NOT the one we want to hold up as a standard. And if someday there is an ability to know ahead of time if the tornado is going to be an EF4 versus EF1 then maybe we hold off sirens for the low end. But right now, I think we can all agree we don't know (cue Impact Based Warning discussion now ;) )<br /><br />So if they are going to be activated for an EF0 with 65mph winds, why would you not also activate them for a derecho with 100mph winds? I'd venture to say that the derecho's damage will be considerably worse...Rob Dalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00132449143586969553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-3123823063602462632012-09-17T08:19:23.349-05:002012-09-17T08:19:23.349-05:00Rob,
One other point: the NWS should not be telli...Rob,<br /><br />One other point: the NWS should not be telling Joplin that "80 mph" is a "tornado-like" wind speed. Yes, it is a lower F1 but its effects will be NOTHING like the tornado in 2011. <br /><br />I'm told the meteorologist's original comments received overwhelming support from his viewers and they wish he had not apologized. I think the citizens of the area are more sensible than their local officials. Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-90071902805639064252012-09-17T08:13:03.800-05:002012-09-17T08:13:03.800-05:00Readers: Rob is an emergency manager.
Hi Rob,
T...Readers: Rob is an emergency manager. <br /><br />Hi Rob,<br /><br />Thanks for the comments. I disagree but that is fine. The level of threat from an F4 or F5 is in an entirely different realm than a gust to 75 mph. I think sirens should be reserved for tornado threats.<br /><br />RE: Joplin. Keep in mind this is the same jurisdiction that did NOT sound the sirens when the tornado warning was issued for the City of Joplin on May 22, 2011. As the 2011 Joplin tornado was moving into the western part of the city, they sounded the sirens then TURNED THEM OFF. The sirens were silent as the tornado made its way across the city.<br /><br />From where I sit, when a major tornado is threatening a city the sirens should be wailing continuously as they did in Greensburg. <br /><br />Sounding sirens for severe thunderstorm warnings but not for tornado warnings makes zero sense. Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-70885646189227400292012-09-17T08:04:17.726-05:002012-09-17T08:04:17.726-05:00Forgot to add that 75mph is in the "best prac...Forgot to add that 75mph is in the "best practices" document developed by the WAS*IS team over the last year: http://skywatch.org/ows.pdfRob Dalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00132449143586969553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-58773657108837455002012-09-17T08:02:42.414-05:002012-09-17T08:02:42.414-05:00Here is the text of the warning the EM received:
...Here is the text of the warning the EM received:<br /><br />THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.<br /><br />HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 80 MPH WIND GUSTS.<br /><br />SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF <br />DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. DOPPLER RADAR IS ALSO <br />INDICATING WINDS TO 80 MPH ALONG THIS LINE.<br /><br />IMPACT...LARGE TREE BRANCHES MAY BE BROKEN...POSSIBLY BLOCKING ROADS<br /> AND DOWNING POWER LINES. SUBSTANTIAL ROOF COVERING DAMAGE<br /> LIKELY. METAL OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED. SIGNIFICANT FLYING<br /> DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS.<br /><br />PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...<br /><br />FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A<br />BUILDING.<br /><br />THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND<br />SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE<br />ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE<br />OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE<br />LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE<br />SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.<br /><br />Now how can you look at that and say "Well the 80mph winds are only straightline, so we aren't going to sound the sirens. But if it was a EF0 tornado with 60mph winds, we will." That makes no sense... Sounding them for 80mph winds is appropriate. Those are more than just "high winds" and with a measured 70mph report and estimated 80mph wind with barns deroofed, I think valid.Rob Dalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00132449143586969553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-41659980463819118492012-09-11T22:14:51.976-05:002012-09-11T22:14:51.976-05:00Thanks, James.
Readers: James is a meteorologist ...Thanks, James.<br /><br />Readers: James is a meteorologist who has worked in Dallas, Wichita and now Tulsa. Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-84620078035445403252012-09-11T21:48:45.046-05:002012-09-11T21:48:45.046-05:00Mike, we see eye to eye here. This problem is get...Mike, we see eye to eye here. This problem is getting worse, Springfield also sounds for SVRs and now Branson too (personal experience Friday).<br /><br />James Aydelott<br />TulsaJaydelotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18249734328749145423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-68187117939254420632012-09-10T18:10:05.571-05:002012-09-10T18:10:05.571-05:00"After the EF5 tornado last year, people are ..."After the EF5 tornado last year, people are still on edge and they started to get a little panicked"<br /><br />Considering what they have been through, I don't blame them. I still get on edge 6 years after a tornado that was only an F2 and didn't kill or injure anyone went through my town. I can only imagine how the people of Joplin -- including those who had babies ripped from their arms, saw loved ones and neighbors die, suffered terrible injuries, lost everything they had including their homes, schools, churches, workplaces, etc. -- must feel when they hear the sirens. <br /><br />Unnecessary siren activation anywhere is unwise, but to do it in Joplin almost seems like rubbing salt in their wounds (physical and emotional). <br /><br />Elaine <br />Bookwormhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12891452878064992022noreply@blogger.com