tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post196236988062288812..comments2024-03-28T14:54:34.646-05:00Comments on MSE CREATIVE CONSULTING BLOG: Followup: My Comments About President Obama's Climate RemarksMike Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-27210398807166330302013-01-27T13:49:40.107-06:002013-01-27T13:49:40.107-06:00Hi AVK45, I'm going to do a post on your quest...Hi AVK45, I'm going to do a post on your question. Stay tuned.Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-53203401776619454452013-01-26T16:07:14.569-06:002013-01-26T16:07:14.569-06:00I agree that the attribution of every drought, hur...I agree that the attribution of every drought, hurricane and tornado outbreak to global warming is absurd.<br /><br />But my question is this:<br /><br />What convinces you that a 1980-1998 type trend won't follow the trend of the past 15 years, which looks awfully similar to 1940-1980? If 1980-98 happened again, what convinces you that we could stop the warming in time? This question is important because the 1940-80 and 1998 through present trends did little to change the overall trend since the late 1800's and the biggest threat from a warmer planet would be sea level rise, not more frequent storms.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-40343600195068017682013-01-25T15:21:51.491-06:002013-01-25T15:21:51.491-06:00Mike:
Although I fully and completely agree with ...Mike:<br /><br />Although I fully and completely agree with you, unfortunately the global warming/climate change discussion has long ago ceased to be a healthy fact-based debate. As we say in high tech, it is now a 'religious war', a la Java vs Microsoft and iPhone vs Android.<br /><br />So far the only winner has been Al Gore.<br />Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08331066509646364037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-7102741881685731032013-01-24T21:16:12.169-06:002013-01-24T21:16:12.169-06:00Correction: The linked graph starts in 1850, not 1...Correction: The linked graph starts in 1850, not 1950. Sorry for the typo.Mike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-66222499370486068792013-01-24T21:15:41.835-06:002013-01-24T21:15:41.835-06:00Pam,
The point of this graph was to show that gl...Pam, <br /><br />The point of this graph was to show that global warming has stopped/paused. Thus the reason for starting it in 1990. <br /><br />You are absolutely correct that temperatures began rising in 1978-79. The entire period, starting in 1950, is here: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl This graph has been posted on this blog at least a dozen times but I'm happy to link to it here to prevent any confusion. <br /><br />Since you are a climate science I greatly respect, I invite you to write a guest post that addresses the following questions:<br /><br />1. Since the mid-late 19th century was the end of the "Little Ice Age" wouldn't it have been expected that temperatures would rise? If so, to what natural level (i.e., w/o human effects)?<br /><br />For the next questions, I don't dispute the multiple peer-reviewed papers that say human-forced global warming began in the 1950's.<br /><br />2. Look at the rise from 1910 to 1944. It is approximately the same magnitude as the rise from 1979 to 1998. If the same magnitude rise can be naturally forced, how do we KNOW the latter rise was anthropogenic? This relates back to question 1.<br /><br />3. Why did temperatures fall from 1945 to 1978? I can only find one peer -reviewed paper n this subject and it says a model study could reproduce that result if it is assumed that soot/dust increased in that period. However, as far as I can tell, the dust has never been found (i.e., in ice cores). Can you find the dust or offer an alternative explanation?<br /><br />If humans caused the mid-20th century drop as posited, doesn't that mean that temperatures, if they had continued to rise at the rate prior to 1944, would be even warmer today?<br /><br />Finally, what is the ideal temperature for humanity? <br /><br />Pam, I hope you'll take me up on this.<br /><br />With very best wishes,<br />MikeMike Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-47939316639964253822013-01-24T20:34:42.481-06:002013-01-24T20:34:42.481-06:00If you go to the link for temperature and plot the...If you go to the link for temperature and plot the entire data series, there is an upward trend since this data set began in the late 1970s. And in fact in the data you plotted there is a perceptible upward trend even in your truncated version, in spite of the large El Nino signal in 1998. It will be interesting to see what temperatures the next strong El Nino brings, although I don't expect to see one any time soon.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05724703436739249342noreply@blogger.com