Monday, September 5, 2022

Climate Experts: Flooding Will DECREASE in the United States With Global Warming

On August 24, I discussed the fact that neither the 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report  -- the gold standard of climate information -- nor the United States' annual climate assessment say that flooding has increased in the United States because of global warming. I also presented information showing the impact of flooding in the USA is a mere fraction of what it was 70 years ago.

What I did not know until yesterday is that the IPCC forecasts that flooding in most of the United States will decrease with global warming. Courtesy of Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr., here is what they say:

Increases in flood frequency or magnitude are identified for south-eastern and northern Asia and India (high agreement across studies), eastern and tropical Africa, and the high latitudes of North America (medium agreement), while decreasing frequency or magnitude [of flooding] is found for central and eastern Europe and the Mediterranean (high confidence), and parts of South America, southern and central North America, and south-west Africa (low confidence). Bolding mine. 

Note: I have very little confidence in our ability to forecast the weather decades into the future. However, I cite this information to make it clear that none of the reputable scientific estimations indicate flooding is increasing either at the present time or is forecast to increase in the future. 

And, from the August 24 post, here is a graph showing the rapidly decreasing flooding damage tolls in the USA (below):
Much more on this topic is here

The fact is there is no -- none -- scientific consensus that flooding is increasing in the United States due to global warming or any other reason. The media and some meteorologists/climatologists need to recalibrate their expectations accordingly. 

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