Monday, September 13, 2021

HURRICANE Nicolas Update 10pm Monday

Nicolas attained hurricane strength as of 10pm.
No other updates.

4pm Nicolas' path forecast from the National Hurricane Center. The storm has sustained winds of 65 mph with near hurricane force winds forecast to exist by landfall. Pink = hurricane watch. A few power failures may occur/

Here is my characterization of the NWS's flash flood forecast for tonight. It is important to know that extreme risk (my characterization of the Hurricane Ida flood forecasts for the Northeast) is a rare forecast but disproportionately accounts for 40% of the deaths.  

Even though it is the NWS's forecast, I used Pivotal Weather's 
plot because of its depiction of counties and highways.
Most flood deaths occur in connection to driving.

Below is the same map with cities affected (via The Weather Channel):

Heavy rain is now moving into the greater Houston-Galveston area (blue arrow).


Below is the forecast of rainfall with this storm. 
Upper right is the Texas-Louisiana border. 

Update: From James Wilson.

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