PRELIMINARY: Major Winter Storm Likely Later This Week

By -

There is the potential for a crippling ice and snow storm late this week in the Great Plains

Preliminary Freezing Rain (Glaze Ice) Forecast
Freezing Rain Accumulations Noon Thursday to Noon Friday.
Of course, amounts may shift up to 50 miles in any direction.

The ice amounts would be bad enough but they will likely be accompanied by high winds (see below). So, if this forecast is correct, not only will travel be disrupted but there is the potential for serious power failures that could last hours or days. 

Preliminary Snow Amount Forecast 

Snowfall Forecast From 6am Thursday to 9pm Friday

There will likely be drifting snow based on wind speed forecasts for 6am Friday.

Wind Gust Forecast For 6am Friday
Pale blues are gusts of 30-35mph. Light greens are 40-44 mph.

Currently, a NWS winter storm watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon into Friday night for the tinted counties. The watch will likely be expanded Wednesday. The watch includes Wichita, Salina and Woodward. 

This is still a preliminary forecast. Storm watches and warnings may have to be extended to the east and northeast with time. 

The heavy ice followed by heavy snow has occurred before at this time of year. There was a nearly identical ice storm followed by heavy snow in this region on January 3-4, 1973. Throughout the night of the 4th in Kansas City, eerie blue lighting would appear for a few seconds as power lines fell and shorted under the weight of the ice and snow.

If you are planning to travel late this week, please factor this forecast into your plans. 

I will update again during the late morning Wednesday. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more