Thursday, October 8, 2020

Re-Strengthening Hurricane Delta, 4:10pm

10pm Update: As expected, the peak wind increased to 120 mph.
I still believe the peak gusts will be around 105-110 mph at landfall.
The rest of the forecast is unchanged.

--- original posting ---
5
Re-intensifying Hurricane Delta at 3:46pm. 

While the winds have increased a bit at ocean level (they are 115 mph); the Hurricane Hunters are now measuring peak winds of 138 mph winds aloft. Those stronger winds, along with some lightning near the eye, might be a sign further intensification is possible. 

At landfall winds of around 105-110 mph are likely. This would be sufficient to cause significant damage but would be less than the wind speeds of Hurricane Laura.

Major Storm Surge is forecasted.

Here are the times of arrival of winds 40 mph or stronger.

Even though utility crews have not finished the job of fixing the grid after Laura's visit, they are going to be highly challenged again.

Safety measures should be rushed to completion. Safety Recommendations With COVID Factored In:

  • Make a hotel/motel reservation well inland. There is no point to getting on the road and finding everything already sold out. Be sure and cancel if you do not need the room. In this case, I would go west (e.g., Lake Charles, Beaumont) to stay away from both winds and flooding. 
  • Make provisions for infirm friends/relatives well in advance. 
  • Get prescriptions filled before you evacuate. 
  • Put an app like AccuWeather's on your smartphone. It will keep track of your location and automatically provide the latest emergency warnings. 
  • Your "Go-Kit" should include at least two masks per person, soap, hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes and, if available, disinfectant spray. 
  • Fill your car with fuel. I still recommend a road atlas or map in addition to whatever navigation system you might have. 
  • Power failures are likely. If you have a generator, fill it with fuel. If you wish to purchase a portable generator, do not put it in the garage, indoors, or anywhere near an air intake. Carbon monoxide is a danger. Nearly half of the fatalities from Hurricane Laura were from carbon monoxide after the storm. 
  • Consider taking your passport or putting it in your safe deposit box. If the worst happens, you'll need it to prove identity for disaster documents. It will be difficult to recover in a ruined home.
  • Take at least two large bottles of water for each family member along with protein bars or other easy-to-carry food. 
  • If you decide to stay home, make sure you have a working fire extinguisher, non-electric can opener, and a first aid kit. 
  • If you encounter flooding, remember: Turn around, don't drown!

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