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Showing posts from August, 2020

Update From Southwest Louisiana

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As meteorologists predicted it would be, Hurricane Laura was absolutely devastating. Please donate to the Salvation Army's Hurricane Laura recovery fund or of another reputable charity (note: I do not include the Red Cross).  There is a myth that office buildings are safe in hurricane and tornado-force winds. That certainly isn't true as the above photo (Capital One high-rise) and the photo below (KPLC TV studio) demonstrate. I would also like to direct you to my comments pertaining to the numerous people on social media and in the MSM that were calling Laura a "false alarm" the day after. Those comments ar e here . Addition: The much-maligned storm surge forecasts were correct.

Looking for a Short Read for the Labor Day Weekend?

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Above is the newest "Goodreads" rating for When the Sirens Were Silent . It is a short book you can read in an evening.  Sirens is the gripping story of the Joplin tornado and what went so terribly wrong that 161 people lost their lives.

Why Do Newspapers Publish This Nonsense?

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I'm always amused by newspapers that editorialize we must "follow science" and then turn around and publish the utterly unscientific forecasts from The Farmer's Almanac. Oy!

The Tragic Deaths From Hurricane Laura

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I suspect most or all of the carbon monoxide deaths were from portable generators. Never run a generator indoors (which includes garages and basements) or near an air intake like an air conditioner.

A Pleasant Surprise: "Wired" Calls For a National Disaster Review Board

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Wired  magazine has an article which calls for the creation of a National Disaster Review Board , a concept I have championed since 2012. The blue link takes your to Part 1. Part 2 is here . I won't restate all of the reasons this is a necessary expenditure of tax dollars; all of the reasons are at the blue link. I do want to state that as a political conservative, I fully realize, Government often does things poorly, especially after the first generation of an agency's leadership departs. With only a few exceptions, the National Transportation Safety Board has been able to stay independent and focused. The NDRB will have to learn from them as to how to do the same. "Capture" is a real danger. That is a Washington, DC term for the industry "capturing" an agency that is supposed to be its regulator. While hardly the only example, the Federal Aviation Administration has become a complete joke in its mission of regulating the airlines. We will have be on

Two Areas of Tornado Risk Today

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Areas shaded in brown have a significant risk of tornadoes today. Please keep up on the weather in these regions.

Before the Winds Subside the Complaints Begin

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Weather science just a splendid job for the people of Louisiana, far east Texas and Arkansas. Hundreds of lives were saved. Yet, even while 100+mph winds were still blowing, the gripes started. I wish to comment on them and then put Hurricane Laura "to bed." The complaints center around two themes: The forecast was bad. Laura wasn't what was expected. People didn't know it was coming; there was nothing done to help the poor.  The emails below are a small sample to give you the idea. I had to report one to Twitter; it was vile.  Let's begin with the shelters and buses. I don't know from where this came. There were many  photos and stories in the media documenting people boarding buses provided by the government to shelters as far away as San Antonio. Yet, there were people upset about this from as far away as Japan. As far as I can tell, the evacuations went off pretty much without a hitch. With regard to the quality of the forecast

Hurricane Laura Forecast 9:30am Thursday

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Laura at 9:22am It still had sustained winds of 85 mph with gusts to near 100 mph.  Here is the forecast future path of the gradually weakening storm.  More power failures are likely as far north as Interstate 40. Flash flooding is a serious concern. This will be the last forecast for Hurricane Laura.

Hurricane Laura - Followup 9:15am Thursday

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Hurricane Laura was What We Feared The recovery will take months This is from Lake Charles this morning.  Power failures and damage, unfortunately, have been extensive. Wind gusts near 150 mph have been reported. Photos from Twitter. \ And, this is a leak from a chemical plant. The seriousness is unknown. Power failures have been near total in many areas. Scattered power failures will creep north as the day progresses. The radars at Ft. Polk and Lake Charles have been knocked out of service. Below is the last image before the Lake Charles radar failed at 12:53am. This is what the Lake Charles radar looks like this morning. Even the tower is tilting. The radars are designed to survive 134 mph winds (see next photo below). This was the radar before Laura. This morning, the first responders represent the best of America.  I recommend donating to the Salvation Army Disaster fund . 

Catastrophic Hurricane Laura: 10:05pm Wednesday Update

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The hurricane warning will be accurate, unfortunately. As of 10pm CDT... Hurricane Laura has winds of 150 mph with gusts to 185 according to the National Hurricane Center. We have been seeing gusts to 200+mph in "mini-swirls" rotating around the eye. Lowest barometric pressure has leveled off at about 938mb.  If you decided to stay (I hope you did not), finish charging your phone and computer. The power will fail as the high winds move inland and won't be back for days. Radar at 9:56pm. I have highlighted the coast in blue. The eyewall -- with the most dangerous winds -- is about two hours or so away. Doppler radar, which measures wind speed, caught this 223 mph -- equivalent to an #F-5 tornado -- "mini-swirl" at 9:49pm.  Those were discovered by Dr. Ted Fujita in his Hurricane Andrew research. They rotate around the eye of the storm and will continue to do so in the first two or three hours after landfall. Interstate 20 10 is now closed, as it

Hurricane Laura, 6:37pm CDT Wednesday Update

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Newer information higher up on the blog.  As of 6:37pm, the sustained winds in Laura we're measured at 153 mph and the pressure has dropped to 940mb. Note: pressure down to 935mb at 7:15pm. The strengthening continues. It is just four miles an hour below Category 5 status.  -- Original 4:30pm Posting Below -- Laura is an Absolute Monster Satellite at 4:06pm. Colored symbols = lightning. When lightning occurs near the eye, it is a sign of strengthening.  Per the National Hurricane Center, the maximum sustained winds with Laura are 145 mph with higher gusts. The eye's minimum pressure of 947 millibars. They are forecasting some slight additional strengthening to 150 mph. I am forecasting it to reach Cat 5 status of 156 mph or higher (reasoning in the posting below this one). It is past the time I can, in good conscience, recommend evacuation. There are already multiple reports of people trapped by high water. So, let's concentrate on other hazards and thei