Tuesday, July 16, 2019

In Concordance With the Tweet Below...

Posted on Twitter a few minutes ago.
Notice how the tweet states that global warming will (no doubt expressed) make hot droughts worse. Yet, if you go to the actual Abstract of the paper, it states something very different.
Although the link between droughts and heat waves is widely recognized, how climate change affects this link remains uncertain. This seems hardly seems as certain as the tweet would indicate. The Abstract goes on to state:

Applying a statistical model that is based on pair-copula constructions, we find that anthropogenic warming leads to enhanced soil moisture–temperature coupling in water-limited areas of the southern Great Plains and/or southwestern United States and consequently amplifies the intensity of extreme heat waves during severe droughts. 

The above stated another way: during a drought, daily temperatures are raised due to baked soil (something every Great Plains farmer has known since day one) per another climate model study. The climate models have been shown to run warm and have shown no demonstrable skill in forecasting climate on a regional basis. Regardless, the hypothesis inferred from the Abstract is that warmer global temperatures tend to create worsening summer ("hot") droughts, especially in the Great Plains and Southwest. So, let's actually do some science. If there is a genuine link between global warming and summer ("hot") droughts, then droughts should worsen as world temperatures rise, especially in the Southwest and Great Plains. 

Here is the Palmer Drought Index (a widely accepted measure of drought) for July, 1934, 85 summers ago. You'll recall the Dust Bowl lasted through most of the 1930's. 

Here is a comparison of global temperatures in 1934 (arrow) versus 2019 (circle):
Obviously, world temperatures have warmed considerably in 85 years. So, if the hypothesis is correct, summer ("hot") droughts and associated temperatures should be worse or more widespread now than droughts of the era were when world temperatures were cooler. 

Here is the July 2019, current, Palmer Drought Index.
Not much resemblence to 1934, is there?

But, it is possible that this is a fluke. Let's look at 2018. 
Okay, that is a worse drought situation than 2019. Let's look further. 
One doesn't have to be a climate practitioner to read these maps and learn the much higher global temperatures of the late 2010's have not lead to droughts anywhere close to what was experienced in the 1930's Dust Bowl Era. That would refute the hypothesis, especially as expressed by NOAA's propagandistic tweet that indicates they are certain about future temperatures and droughts. 

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