Friday, May 17, 2019

Overview of Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Risk For Saturday and Saturday Night

Tomorrow is a very tough forecast because the weather system forecast to move into the central Great Plains will have to interact with the remains of tonight's storms.

Here is the SPC's outlook for Saturday and Saturday night.
The significant threshold for severe thunderstorms (some of which may produce tornadoes) is yellow (15%). There is a large enhanced threat (red, 30%) area from the Ozarks to central Texas.

In addition there is a large hatched area that extends from Kansas City to Wichita, Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls. That is an area where very large hail (≥2") are forecast to occur. It also would not surprise me to see a small area of concentrated tornado risk in the hatched area but it is impossible to know yet where it may be.

I will update this forecast late Saturday morning.

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