Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's Forecast of overall severe weather (tornadoes and severe thunderstorms). The yellow, 15%, is the significant threshold.
However, their forecast does not break tornadoes out separately. For planning purposes, I believe that is necessary in this case. Below is my tornado forecast valid from 9am Monday until 8am Tuesday.
- The European model and the one of the mesoscale models runs the warm front father north than the others. I believe that is correct and, if so, will be over the middle Flint Hills about sunrise. The chances of tornadoes will increase in area 1 after 6pm and, especially, after dark. Some tornadoes could occur even after midnight. I discuss special safety precautions below.
- What I am calling the extreme risk has the highest risk of number of tornadoes and intensity of tornadoes. I recommend being in touch with weather information any time after 9am.
- The high risk of tornadoes, on most days, would be an impressive forecast. In Texas, be on alert all day. In Oklahoma, be alert after 12 noon.
- Because of the higher than average overnight tornado risk, I strongly recommend downloading both the AccuWeather app (scroll down to bottom of page). Be sure to allow location services.
- Making sure you have turned the emergency notification feature on your smartphone. Easy instructions are at the red link.
- Insure your PC and phone are fully charged but take them off the charger before lightning arrives.
Great recommendations for preparing your property are here.
Finally, I believe far eastern Kansas, the Arkansas Ozarks, and Missouri will be under the gun on Tuesday. I'll post more on that tomorrow.