Thursday, May 23, 2019

1:18am - Wrapping Things Up For the Night

I thought I was finished earlier (scroll down to the forecasts a couple of postings below) but then the Missouri supercell blew up and I wanted to help get the warning out for Eldon and Jefferson City via Twitter. Officials in Missouri are calling this rash of nighttime tornadoes a "mass casualty event" but we do not know yet what that means.

I have been doing this for 52 years and I have NEVER seen an overnight tornado outbreak of this intensity. The supercell thunderstorm which is producing tornadoes near Warrenton, MO (and began near Tulsa) is approaching a path length of 350 miles. That is extraordinary. But, it was also forecasted: at 11:39am I posted "Serious Tornado Risk" and explicitly forecast both overnight tornadoes and gave instructions as to how to set up your smartphone as a nighttime "tornado alarm." If you haven't already done so, please look over the instructions at the red link.

Here is the first forecast of tornado risk from the Storm Prediction Center valid from 7am Thursday to 7am Friday.
The brown areas have a significant risk of tornadoes. The yellow area has an enhanced risk and the yellow hatching indicates violent tornadoes may occur as they have the last 24-hours. If the warm front moves far enough north, I would not be surprised if the risk level in the Great Plains has to be elevated further.

So, please continue to monitor local media, the AccuWeather app, and your smartphone for updated tornado and flash flood information.

That's all for tonight. 

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