Thursday, April 11, 2019

How Did the Supercell Forecast Work Out?

Long time readers know I validate the forecasts I post here as a way of holding myself accountable and to give readers an idea of how much credibility to give them.

On Tuesday, I tried something new: forecasting the number of supercells (which produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and, sometimes, tornadoes). The forecast is immediately below.
As the explanation of the forecast stated,
The moisture was low so no tornadoes occurred. However, there were extensive reports of large hail and the forecast, i.e., number of supercells, worked out pretty well. Here are the hail tracks as plotted by NOAA:
The yellow/orange/red colors are a good representation of the hailstorms. You can compare it to the forecast above.

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