Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Drought Concern

I can't tell you why, exactly, but I'm increasingly concerned that a drought may develop over the Central Plains this spring and into the summer. This is a "gut feeling" rather than something scientific. I'm passing it along for what it is worth.

Monday, April 22, 2019

Is Global Warming a Cult?

Of course! In fact, it isn't even close when comparing the movements' collective behavior to the Ten Warning Signs. See for yourself, here.

Addition...
Fortunately, the vast majority of Americans realize the global warming issue for what it is. Via Twitter.

Sunday, April 21, 2019

HAPPY EASTER!

Mindy and I wish you a joyous and grace-filled Easter 2019.

Bonus: How today's MSM would have reported the events of Good Friday, Holy Saturday and Easter.

Friday: https://hillfaith.blog/2019/04/19/alert-authorities-execute-man-who-claimed-to-be-god/

Saturday:  https://hillfaith.blog/2019/04/20/controversy-erupts-amid-claims-man-named-jesus-survived-crucifixion/#more-1072

Sunday:  https://hillfaith.blog/2019/04/21/news-alert-authorities-scramble-to-explain-empty-tomb-of-jesus/#more-1085

Saturday, April 20, 2019

The Allure of Farming

Some boys want to be farmers and an insightful article explains why. My favorite paragraph:

As Michael Gurian explains in his book, The Minds of Boysmales are full of “boy energy,” an energy that “involves a lot of physical movement and manipulation of physical objects.” If channeled properly, this energy, although often annoying to teachers and mothers, helps boys to process, learn, and become innovators. Thus, a farm and the labor it offers becomes the perfect avenue for little boys to become independent and mature thinkers.

It is surprising to me that some parents discourage their children from farming. It can be a great life. The view of the Kansas sky from a wide-open farm cleanses and inspires the soul.

Friday, April 19, 2019

Coverage of Tornadoes For the Rest of 2019

It is my goal to make people aware of serious threats due to weather even though meteorology is no longer the primary focus of this blog.

However, now that the Middle Atlantic and the Great Plains have had their first tornadoes of 2019, I am going to stop coverage of typical spring tornado situations. I will cover especially dangerous situations. 

Dangerous Day in the Middle Atlantic Region

Heads up: Raleigh, Charlotte, Columbia, Richmond and Charleston. Damaging winds and tornadoes are in today's forecast.

Let's break it down. The more serious risk is damaging thunderstorm winds. The significant risk is 15%. The purple area is a high risk of 45%. The hatched area is where wind gusts are forecast to exceed 75 mph!

There is also an enhanced risk of tornadoes.
On this forecast chart, 5% (brown) is the significant risk threshold. The 10% (yellow) is an enhanced risk.

How to prepare:
  • Power failures will be widespread. So, get some extra cash at the ATM and fill your car with fuel well before the storms arrive. If you have a chain saw, fill it as well. [Remember, if power is out, ATM's and fuel pumps will not work.] Power failures could last several days.
  • Fully charge your phone and PC before the storms arrive. Take them off the charger before lightning is present. 
  • If warnings of extreme winds are issued, please shelter like you would a tornado. Preferably a basement under sturdy furniture. If not, a small room in the middle of the house. 
  • If a tornado watch or a "particularly dangerous situation" severe thunderstorm watch is issued, please exit your mobile home find other shelter, perhaps in a community shelter or other sturdy public building. 
  • Wherever you shelter, I recommend wearing shoes, taking a flashlight with good batteries, and a couple of bottles of water into your shelter. If appropriate, take diapers and portable family heirlooms like scrapbooks. 
Please make sure you have at least two independent ways of receiving the warnings! Good luck.

Thursday, April 18, 2019

Something for VORTEX-SE to Research

There is a major tornado research program pertaining to tornadoes in the Southeast. I would like to offer a suggestion for some serious research.

I have been viewing weather radar on a virtually daily basis for 48 years. This afternoon, I saw a phenomena I've seen only one other time which was in the late 1970's in Kansas (I don't remember the date): a gigantic (as these things go) rotating mesoscale vortex that was not associated with a supercell thunderstorm that was apparently spawning multi-vortex, violent, tornadoes. I'm bringing this to research meteorologists' attention because I have not seen any coverage of it in the Mississippi media, so far.

Why is this important? The answer can be easily seen in a video here. A screen capture is below.
It is rare for non-supercells to cause tornadoes of EF-3 intensity which the above image suggests. 

Here are some images of the radar data from this unusual storm. The
"donut" centered just west of Polkville, ten miles in diameter, is unusually large for this type of system. There was a report a few minutes later of a multi-vortex tornado near Polkville.

Here is a wider view with the Doppler wind velocity data on the right. The brownish white tints are
winds above 100 mph.

It is fairly common for tornadoes to loft debris. This image is commonplace.

But, the image below, which appears to depict rotating debris aloft (it was Tilt 2) is unusual.

This is just a little of what was unusual about this storm. Researchers? Have at it!!

Thank You, Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr.

I was pleased to see this as part of my Twitter feed yesterday.
If you would like to check out my book Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather, click here.

Validation of My Forecast

I validate all of my severe weather forecasts for my readers as a way of holding myself accountable. I'm happy to report that yesterday's was a real stinker.

I use the word happy because tornadoes did not occur where forecast and fewer tornadoes are always a good thing. Below is the forecast posted here yesterday.

Below is the map of actual tornado reports (red dots = tornado).
I take my forecasting seriously and I'll do my best to do better next time.





Today's Tornado Risk

The brown area (5%) is the significant tornado risk threshold. The yellow is an enhanced risk and the hatching indicates strong tornadoes are possible. This includes Jackson, Hattiesburg, Gulfport, Mobile, Montgomery and Panama City.

Please monitor the weather in these locations today.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Damaging Winds Are Forecast

Above radar at 8:14pm CDT.

The NWS SPC is forecasting that an area of damaging winds will form near the KS-OK border near I-35 and move east. This should began around 9pm with the threat ending by around midnight.

This will be last update for the Kansas-Oklahoma severe thunderstorm threat.

Update 8:30pm. No sooner did I post this than the storms rapidly began organizing. Below is the radar at 8:25pm. Especially in the northern two rows of Oklahoma counties a band of damaging winds is forming rapidly. Gusts of 65-70 mph may occur in spots. There could be power failures. 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch For Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma


Good move by the Air Force to protect to protect their very expensive taxpayer-paid aircraft. Full article here.

Just a few minutes ago, the National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm watch for large hail and for strong wind gusts up to 70 mph. I'm not particularly worried about tornadoes.
Please put your car in the garage and bring in law furniture or other items that could be damaged by hail or high winds.

UPDATE: At least 1" hail reported at or very near McConnell AFB. Their decision to move the aircraft was proactive weather risk mitigation at its very best.

Weather Forecast Snapshot

Here is an experimental snapshot of the location of thunderstorms and the risks they pose for the period 6pm to 8pm. Please note the locations are approximate.
Please keep up on the weather in these areas. 

Two Day Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

Forecast For Late This Afternoon and Tonight

The overall risk of tornadoes is low (but not zero) north of the Red River. From the Red River counties of Oklahoma south into Texas, there is a good chance of a few tornadoes, with the
better chance from sunset on during the night.

Hail
Unfortunately, hail may be the big event late this afternoon and tonight.
The hatched areas (including Wichita and the DFW Metroplex) are where large, damaging hail may fall.

Tornado Threat Thursday

This is the day where there is a serious tornado threat if things come together as forecast.
Where the hatching is located, there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds. I will update this forecast tomorrow morning.

Oops, Forgot to 'Look Out the Window'

Early in their careers, television meteorologists are told to always look out the window right before presenting a weathercast. It can prevent embarrassment.

Unfortunately, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) metaphorically forgot to look out the window before publishing this tweet yesterday afternoon.
There's only one problem: the drought ("80% accuracy"!!) has ended.

Here is a map of the Colorado River's watershed.
Below is a map of the current drought situation. The Colorado River is on the base map. Almost none of the Colorado River's drainage area, except northwest New Mexico, is in drought.

The other generally accepted drought index shows above normal moisture conditions over much of the basin. The only drought is over a small portion of western New Mexico.
Most of the Upper Colorado watershed in Colorado has above average snow cover, a full 30% above average.
So, this is a case of the AMS organization crying wolf. When it incorrectly cries wolf, it makes the entire field look bad. 

There is a second lesson here. This paper that formed the basis of the tweet was submitted to the AMS in its final form on October 31. What does it say about those in the field of climate study and their ability to make 60-year forecasts if science cannot make accurate forecasts six months out?

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Catholic Priest: Hero of Notre Dame

As always, the Cross endures.
Photo of the altar inside Notre Dame by
Reuters' Philippe Wojazer
An amazing story of courage: A Catholic priest worked with firefighters and risked his life to save the Blessed Sacrament and Jesus' Crown of Thorns from the Notre Dame fire. The must read story is here.

Some other thought on the loss of Notre Dame (also a must-read) are here. There is very good news: all three Rose Windows survived. Ongoing coverage here.

The Perfectly Hung Clothes....

...illustrate why, if you don't have a basement or safe room, the best place to shelter during a tornado is a closet or bathroom in the middle of the home. Those extra walls around you could save your life.
Via Twitter

Monday, April 15, 2019

Very Pleased to See This In My Twitter Feed...

Roger is referring to the likelihood of severe thunderstorms and, perhaps the first tornadoes of the season in the Great Plains, later this week. Regarding my books, here is Roger's link.

Yep!

From Twitter. Mr. Wilbon is a cohost of the sports show Pardon the Interruption. Please focus on the fact he is griping about an interruption of a replay.

If Global Warming Is No Longer About Science, What is its True Foundation?

Last week, there was another insightful article about the real issues involved in the global warming religion. 
Progressives see climate change as not only a crisis [it isn't, by any means] but also an opportunity. As argued by Naomi Klein in her 2014 best-selling book, This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate, a climate movement inspired by bold policy proposal such as the Green New Deal, and equal in intensity to political movements that balled slavery and colonialism, would allow an alliance of left-wind groups to achieve a diverse range of social justice goals. For progressive, climate change, she argued, is the best chance to right the "festering wrongs" of colonialism and slavery, "the unfinished business of liberalism." 
The overarching aim of the Ocasio-Cortez/Markey plan is to transition the United States into a social democracy in the mold of Norway, Sweden and Denmark, and then to spread a similar Green New Deal model across other countries of the world. As argued by backers of the resolution, the long-standing problems of climate change and income inequality share common causes, rooted in a "neoliberal" capitalist economy that favors corporations, economic growth, and the wealthy over everything else. This imbalance in power has not only created a climate emergency, they argue, but also has perpetuated the historic oppression of the working class, women, the disabled, people of color, and other "frontline and vulnerable communities."

One could write an entire book about what is wrong with the above statements. Facts: The United States and the world are more prosperous (there is less extreme poverty in the world than at any time in the entire history of the world), peaceful, and healthy than at any time in history. However, disregarding what got us to this point has created the current measles epidemic and numerous other new problems.

Liberty, free enterprise and the rule of law have created unimaginable prosperity and bounty for the world. That said, the United States has many issues -- the most fundamental of which is that we are turning away from those principles that have served us so well for the last 240 years.

But, returning to the quotations above, I don't know what could be more clear in demonstrating that global warming has morphed into primarily being about politics rather than science.

That point is also made by an article published earlier this month. The academy brooks no dissent when it comes to global warming. In fact, it will even refuse to publish accurate papers critical of climate models.
In real science, skepticism is celebrated. In global warming, it can get you fired. Remember, actions are not important, like using the most carbon-inefficient form of transportation.
Regardless of his gigantic carbon footprint (private jets, three homes, etc.), Sanders is revered because global warming is in no way about "saving the planet." And, today's climate studies are no longer about science.

United States' society can either face these issues for what they are or we can allow our society to deteriorate further. 

Sunday, April 14, 2019

Tiger's Victory Brought to You By...The Science of Meteorology

Sports Illustrated
Had the Master's begun play at the time originally scheduled, they would not have finished without lightning and rain delays. Play would likely have been extended into Monday. The screen capture below (with storms moving NE) would have been about the time they
would have been, on the original schedule, approaching Amen Corner. See the little "swirl" symbol NNW of Augusta? That is a report of wind damage from a possible tornado while play was wrapping up.

So, congratulations to Tiger Woods and to the meteorologists and the Augusta National officials who took their forecast seriously.

Yet, even with this success, there were still unhappy people.


Above is a sample (from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) of irate tweets due to coverage of a tornado warning in the northeast part of the Atlanta metro. I went back and looked at the data and it is below. Focus on the circled area northeast of Stone Mountain.
click t enlarge
On the left is the reflectivity data (the type you usually see on TV) and on the right is the Doppler wind data. The wind data clearly shows a "couplet" that is generally associated with a tornado. And, there were power lines and trees downed but we don't yet know whether it was a tornado or straight winds generated by the thunderstorm. Regardless, there was a real safety threat here.

Since I have not seen the coverage, I don't know whether it was excessive. Given the fact there were at least two storm fatalities in Texas yesterday and one in Mississippi around 4am this morning, I don't blame the meteorologist(s) for wanting to provide the best information in a timely manner. I understand they did eventually go to a split screen which is a good solution.

Today's Tornado Threat

We a geographically large tornado threat today.
The brown, 5%, is the significant threshold for tornadoes and I recommend monitoring the weather in these areas as the day progresses. Tornado watches are already out in the southern part of this area.

Sunday Fun: One of the World's Most Crucial Issues

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Coverage Note

I will update this space Sunday morning with any severe weather forecasts.

First Tornado Watch of the Day

I am in between things and caught the first tornado watch of the day as it was being issued. Three inch has has already occurred north of San Antonio and tornado damage has been reported (but not confirmed) in Texas. This is a dangerous situation. Please monitor the weather if you are in the watch or the broader threat outlined below.

Please note the risk of tornadoes is "high" and the risk of strong tornadoes is "moderate." There is also a high risk of winds of more than 60 mph.

Coverage Note

I have family things the rest of the day. So, I will not be presenting any storm coverage. However, I will update late this afternoon or evening if I get a chance.

Serious Tornado Threat Today and Tonight

Above is the latest tornado forecast from the NWS Storm Prediction Center. The brown area (5%) is the significant threshold for tornadoes. Yellow is 10%. Red is 15%. The hatched area is where strong tornadoes are forecast to occur. One of the most serious threats about this situation is that tornadoes and damaging winds are likely to occur well into the overnight hours -- when they are especially dangerous.

And, please, don't be one of these!