Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Indigenous Wisdom From AOC

Saturday, climate expert Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez provided us, based on her scientific expertise, a new strategy for fighting global warming:

"The way we inoculate ourselves from continuing to burn up our planet at unsustainable level, triggering feedback loops that we have not even begun to comprehend, is by honoring indigenous wisdom and allowing it to guide our climate policy."

Good luck with that.

While on the subject of nonsense, this headline caught my eye yesterday afternoon.
Yes, they are serious. Natural gas is an excellent fuel for many purposes and it is low in greenhouse gas. It appears they are more interested in gestures than actually lowering the rate of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Monday, November 11, 2019

"How Windy Is It?"

A powerful cold front is moving across the central United States and it is bringing a lot of wind with cold wave conditions. So, I am answering the question on everyone's minds: How Windy Is It?
  • It is so windy, there are white caps in the commode. 
  • It is so windy, President Trump's hair moved.
  • It is so windy, speedometers are going backward.
And, it is so windy in Tulsa, the frozen custard* blew over.
Pictures via Twitter
And, it is so cold the cone won't melt.

*BTW: If you've never tried it, Andy's has great frozen custard. 

Happy Veteran's Day

Happy Veteran's Day!!
I want to wish a special day to my brother-in-law, Ben Rector. A great man and a great Marine.

Sunday, November 10, 2019

A Great Holiday Gift

Another recent review:
click to enlarge
I wrote Warnings because I wanted to tell the absolutely amazing story of America's unique storm warning system that has saved tens of thousands of lives and continues to save lives almost every week. It is a perfect holiday gift because it is uplifting and there is nothing political in it.
There are few things more appreciated than a hardcover book with a person inscription. It will be cherished forever.

Sunday Fun: Why Railroads Need Advanced Weather Warnings

While awaiting a phone call, the television was on Turner Classic Movies and there was a 1931 picture playing titled Other Men's Women. As a meteorologist and railfan, this segment caught my attention. If only they had precision storm warnings in 1931!

Today, AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions provides track-specific storm warnings for most of the major railroads in North America. In 2016, a segment of Union Pacific track, with a speed limit of 70 mph, washed out west of Topeka. Fortunately, we told the railroad about the danger. They sent a
track surveyor to check and, sure enough, the bridge was gone. So, unlike the fictional washout in 1931, catastrophe was avoided.

Friday, November 8, 2019

What Do Wichita Visitors From Kansas City Recommend?

Some great suggestions are here.

My overall experience has shown me that it isn't possible to fully grasp the growth that Wichita is going through in merely a few trips. There will always be a hidden gem waiting to be discovered. There will always be a new idea that someone is waiting to present. Whether its a recently opened cafe or an established restaurant that has been around for over 30 years. The people that I have come to meet on my journey in seeking out what makes Wichita special, have shown me that they are continuing to be open for that growth. So I am confident that no matter what, I will always be left with more to discover in Wichita. That is why I will always be excited to come back to a place I once called home.

Thursday, November 7, 2019

As Seen At the San Diego Airport Earlier Today

For those who have not been following developments in the case the last 36 hours, ABC News' Amy Robach told the world (via Project Veritas) that they had the story of serial child rapist and blackmailer Jeffery Epstein three years ago and ABC spiked the story because -- in addition to other reasons -- they wouldn't be able to do cutesy interviews with the Royal Family. That, dear readers, is pure evil.
Note also the time frame: Robach says they "had" Bill Clinton ("pictures and everything") three years ago -- which would have been when his wife was running for President.

Remember, by spiking the story, it is possible that more girls were raped.

Stay Off Railroad Tracks!

Tuesday, a young man in Oregon was killed taking a senior picture on railroad tracks. Please don't -- far too many are being killed this way.

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Danger: Pretend Climate 'Scientists' Making Ghoolish Headlines

And, the unserious and disgusting news media is giving them what they want.

Daily Mail
All of this is utter nonsense. The paper in question was written by Professor (of forestry!) William Ripple of Oregon State University. While this is a wild guess, I wonder if some the scientists issuing the "warning" are having trouble getting grants.

Next, Bioscience -- where the paper appeared -- is a journal with no expertise in climate. It declaring a 'climate emergency' is ludicrous.
Weather and climate-related disasters are decreasing. Deaths from weather are WAY down. There is plenty of food for the planet's people. Extreme poverty is at the lowest level in world history. 

The idea we need to "urgently" attain a planet with "far fewer humans" didn't work so well for humanity when Mao, Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, and Pol Pot tried it. The very notion is dangerous.
The author of the Bloomberg (above) news article, which seemed to kick off this mess, Eric Roston (education below), who presents himself as an "expert," isn't a even a scientist.
A degree in Russian History is hardly training for understanding the atmosphere and its huge complexities. He has been selling his "gloom and doom" story for years. Yet, as we have seen many times, the climate refuses to cooperate.

What we have here is non-climate scientists telling us we have a 'climate emergency.' Wrong. There is no climate emergency. 

A superior article on global warming and its effect is below and this headline is correct. 
The basics: a power line falling or a police chase causing a fire have nothing to with climate. Compared to the first half of the 20th Century, wildfires are way down. More on the subject, from a genuine expert, is here.

Yes, it is true we didn't have modern firefighting techniques 100 years ago but it is also true we had many fewer miles of roads (fewer opportunities for fires due to cigarette butts thrown from cars) and many fewer people living in backwoods areas.

Things in the world are going very well at the moment -- which makes the people whose dollars depend on crisis nervous. Thus, the illogical and dangerous headlines about climate. After all, it is hard to get grants if global warming is not a major threat. 

This Is So True

Monday, November 4, 2019

2019 Has Been a Very Mild Year for Disasters

In spite of headlines to the contrary, 2019 has been an exceptionally mild year for disasters worldwide.
The different shades of bars on the graph represent data from Aon and Munich Re. They show the same thing: 2019 is a very mild year and the worldwide trend in disasters is down. 

The "global warming = worsening disasters," at least so far, is nonsense. 

Sunday, November 3, 2019

A Point We Have Made Over and Over


Cliff Mass has the details here. We no longer post forecasts beyond the 6-10 day outlook on this blog.

And, keep in mind, that if we cannot forecast the weather three weeks ahead, there is no way we can forecast the climate 30 years from now.

More from Joe Bastardi: Well worth reading

Sunday Fun: "A Taste of Wichita"

USA Today had a feature about Wichita last week that
 I highly recommend.
In addition to the excellent restaurants and bars mentioned, I'd add a few more.
  • Kathleen and my overall favorite restaurant is Chester's
  • The article mentioned Piatto Pizza and it is outstanding. But, in my opinion, Picasso's is even better. 
  • If you have a hankering for prime rib or twice-baked potatoes, I recommend Scotch & Sirloin. They also have an outstanding wine list. 
  • And, finally, we have several dessert restaurants in Wichita. The only one I have tried is Milkfloat, which is great. 

Saturday, November 2, 2019

Remember When the Maldives Were the Poster-Islands For Sea Level Rise?

From September 26, 1988. The Maldives were going to be completely flooded by last year.
Another giant global warming oops.

This was brought to my attention Thursday:
Between the hotel and airport booms, it looks like the smart money doesn't think much of the global warming-related gloom and doom predictions. But, that doesn't stop Big Climate from trying. From April of this year:
The fact they were completely wrong never stops Big Climate from selling its expensive agenda. What a joke!

Friday, November 1, 2019

How Could Anyone This Ignorant Be Governor of New York?

"We didn't have hurricanes before climate change."

When I heard about his comment that we didn't have tornadoes, hurricanes or superstorms before climate change, I thought he must have been asked a misleading question. I couldn't imagine he would say New York didn't have these storms before. Well, he did. The quote, from earlier today, is above. Wow.

One of the worst hurricanes in the entire history of the United States was the Long Island Express which occurred in 1938. It killed 700 and was the 9th most destructive hurricane in U.S. history causing more than (in today's dollars) $57 billion in damages.

Now, note the name of the hurricane. The last time I checked, Long Island was part of New York. Even The Battery in NYC had gusts to 80 mph. The photo below was some of the devastation on Long Island.

As for tornadoes, the 1953 Worcester, Mass. Tornado (100 miles from Albany) killed 94; one of the most deadly tornadoes in United States history.
1953 Worcester Tornado
The idea that New York didn't have major storms before global warming is beyond absurd. It is nothing but propaganda. 

Unintended Consequences

A new paper, Be Cautious With the Precautionary Principle: Evidence From Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident, has been published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

While the entire paper is behind a paywall, the paper's Abstract is fascinating:

This paper provides a large scale, empirical evaluation of unintended effects from invoking the precautionary principle after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. After the accident, all nuclear power stations ceased operation and nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuels, causing an exogenous increase in electricity prices. This increase led to a reduction in energy consumption, which caused an increase in mortality during very cold temperatures. We estimate that the increase in mortality from higher electricity prices outnumbers the mortality from the accident itself, suggesting the decision to cease nuclear production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.

The entire issue of energy is far more sensitive that many imagine. Great Britain has seen a large increase in wintertime deaths due to energy starvation caused by higher prices -- a direct result of 'green' energy. We need to keep in mind the safety of our fellow men and women should always be the highest priority.

Hat Tip: Dr. Judith Curry

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Major Tornado Threat: Middle Atlantic States

Please factor this forecast into your Halloween Plans.
The brown area is a significant risk of tornadoes. The yellow area is an enhanced risk. If you live in these regions, it is important you keep up on the weather in your area. If I lived in these areas, I would call off trick-or-treating if a tornado watch is in effect at that time.

There is also a high risk of damaging winds in the purple area. 
On this forecast, yellow is a significant risk of thunderstorm-related gusts of 60 mph or higher. Red is an enhanced risk and purple is a high risk. In addition to all of that, lightning will be a hazard.

High Flu Risk in Most of the Nation

Here is the latest flu risk map from Diseasecast.

If you haven't done so, please strongly consider getting vaccinated against the flu. 

Flu kills far more people than drunk drivers.

According to PublicHealthCorps.org, last year 79,000 people died of flu in the United Stats versus 10,585 due to drunk drivers. 

Only 37% of people get vaccinated. Please consider getting vaccinated. 

And, if someone gets the flu anyway, the best products for combating it are here.

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Southern California Fire Forecast for October 31

click to enlarge
Extremely critical wildfire conditions are forecast for the purple areas from 5am Thursday, Halloween, to 5am Friday.

The (Invisible) Record Cold in the Western U.S.

Did you know the U.S.A. (Lower 48) set an all-time October cold temperature of -35°F at Logan Canyon, Utah, yesterday. Or, that it was even colder there today? Or, that it was a record cold weather balloon launch in Grand Junction, Colorado? Or, that Denver set a record low of 3° this morning?

Of course you didn't.

That is because it is not part of global warming 'narrative.'

Below is one hour of records or temperature readings within one degree of record from earlier this week.
As indicated below, the problem in the United States has been cold, not warmth. I am not saying we are undergoing some great cooling.

My point is that this is not being covered, at all, in the mainstream media. Regardless that Big Climate wants you to believe 'the science is settled,' it certainly is not.


Attention: Eastern Time Zone Readers

I live in Wichita in the Central time zone. More and more, I am persuaded that our friends and fellow citizens in the Eastern time zone aren't aware of how time zones work.

Headline from yesterday.
This isn't the first time recently I've seen this suggestion. This past summer, some researchers at Johns Hopkins thought eliminating time zones was a good idea. Presumably, the rest of us would be on Eastern time, where Johns Hopkins is located.

Then, this morning, I was awakened by a very early call. Turns out the representative of this company, based in Columbus, was completely unaware (I asked her) that Kansas is in a different time zone than Ohio.

Before my retirement, this was a periodic issue working with a corporate home office in the Eastern time zone for 12 years. Actual dialog:

Home office: Okay, let's meet tomorrow at eight. 
Mike in Wichita: You realize that's 7am here?!
Home office: What?
Mike in Wichita: We are in the Central time zone. That would be 7 here. 
Home office: There will be many more participating from here; you can do it just this one time.

Of course, it was several times a year, not "one time." Personally, I'd rather have bamboo shoots under my fingernails than be in the office at 7 for a meeting.

Earlier this year, I was working with some people with PBS based in Boston. I had a conversation nearly identical to the one above when scheduling a teleconference.

So, as a public service, let's talk about time zones.
So, to my friends in Columbus, when you call at 8:30am there, it is 7:30am in Wichita.

What would it be like if we look the suggestion of Johns Hopkins and put everyone on the Eastern time zone? In December, the sun would not rise in Seattle until 11am. It would not set in Seattle in June until 11:30pm. I suspect the people of the State of Washington, along with most of the rest of the nation, would object.

Suggestion for my friends in the Eastern time zone, print out the map above and put it next to your phone. Check the state of the person you are calling to make sure it is business hours where they live before you dial.
They will thank you for it!

And, while we are on the subject of time zones, Daylight Saving Time ends Saturday night.

"Extremely Critical" Fire Danger in California

Click to enlarge
The purple area is the highest rated fire danger forecast the National Weather Service makes. Please be extremely cautious in this area. 

California Businesspeople: Move Your Business to Kansas!

From a blunt article about California's present and future:

Thanks to the tens of billions of dollars in liabilities from the wildfires last year, PG&E has filed for bankruptcy. The utility’s bankruptcy has been a source of absolute chaos. It looks like PG&E shareholders will likely be completely wiped out. It is unlikely that any new controlling party will bring the utility back from the dead. So Californians should not discount the possibility that being without power is their new normal. No one seems to know how the utility is going to survive at this point, and that’s a big problem for the millions of people they support. 
The incredible irony in all of this is that the green state of California has been keeping the lights on during this period with privately procured generators running on… wait for it… fossil fuels.

Believe it or not, the situation is likely even worse than depicted above
The Kansas Flint Hills
Give some serious thought to moving to Kansas and Wichita in particular. Here are some excellent reasons:
  • We have plenty of reliable electricity and natural gas. Rates are far less than California's.
  • In most of the ways that matter, we have a better lifestyle. Short commutes, very low cost of living (Wichita has the lowest housing costs in the nation), plenty to do at low costs.
  • Extremely nice people from all over the nation due to the aircraft industry. 
  • If you want to ski, Colorado is driving distance. 
  • If you like the ocean, we have cheap non-stop flights (Allegiant Airlines, an ultra-low-cost airline). 
I know what Californians are going to think: What about those tornadoes? The statistical chances are very low. It is certainly less than the combination of major earthquakes & wildfires & blackouts which is far, far higher.

So, come and check us out. I think you'll be impressed.  

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Is Global Cooling the Real Climate Danger?

As many of you know, I am a "lukewarmer" -- I believe the planet is warming but at a slower rate than many believe and that the effects of the warming, when netted out (e.g., the items you are never told about by the media, such as greater food production due to a warmer climate), will not be all that severe.

I also, frequently, state that global cooling would be a catastrophe for mankind. However, I have not forecasted cooling.

That stipulated, here is a piece from scientists I respect that believe cooling is beginning. I suggest you read it because it outlines their evidence. Are they correct? It is hard to tell.
It is difficult to detect a recent short-term (the length of time of that any worldwide cooling trend that may have begun) cooling trend because the world data has been 'adjusted' to death; in some cases unethically. In the United States, we are fortunate to have a "gold standard" temperature sensing network in all 50 states that does not require any adjustment. The graph below is the raw data. It tells a very different story than the "adjusted" data.
According to the gold standard U.S. data, there has been no warming since it was installed in 2003. And, since the end of 2016, there has been significant cooling. As the article at the blue link correctly indicates, the 2019 corn and soybean crops have suffered significantly due to the cool growing season, especially at the beginning.

In most ways, we can adjust to global warming.

Global cooling, and the accompanying famines that would result, would mean the deaths of millions as we could not grow enough food. Energy costs would skyrocket as would deaths due to cold (there are about 17 killed by cold weather for every person who dies due to heat).

For the people like 350.org who desire a colder climate, be careful what you wish for. 

If, and this is a big 'if,' cooling is the real danger then we would want to put all of the greenhouse gas we possibly could into the atmosphere. It would take years longer than it should to even acknowledge cooling because there are so many invested in the catastrophic global warming hypothesis. Stay tuned.

Monday, October 28, 2019

Extremely Critical Fire Danger in the Southland

Most of Ventura and parts of Los Angeles Counties are in the "extremely critical" wildfire danger category. 

More fires are already occurring. In the case of the Getty Fire, police are going door-to-door to get people to evacuate. Traffic is a "nightmare" on the 405 freeway.
Los Angeles Times
It is a day to be extremely cautious in the Southland. 

Addition: The Los Angeles Times just removed its paywall pertaining to Getty Fire coverage. 

"Warnings" -- A Great Gift!!

A brand new review at Amazon:
I would recommend that all weather geeks, meteorologists, forecasters, emergency management personnel, storm spotters and chasers read Mike Smith's uplifting tome on weather warnings. All info presented was thoughtful and pragmatic and historically accurate -- A great read. Mr. Smith is also a great writer. 

And, the review immediately before:
I expected this book to be interesting. But, I didn't expect it to be such a page-turner. I couldn't put it down. The writing is excellent. It has a good pace and kept me coming back for more. I love reading about weather, but I can't say too many meteorology books have had me up min the middle of the night saying, "just one more chapter!" This one did. The specific storm stories weave together the topics perfectly. I want to deliver a free copy to anyone who snakes about the weatherman never getting it right. They just don't understand. This book shines a light on the everyday heroics of storm forecasters that go unnoticed and unappreciated. And, it's a fun read!

And, yesterday, an unsolicited comment from Twitter about both books.

This uplifting book is a perfect gift. 
With the holidays coming....

And, while it is more difficult to give as a gift, the ebook version has 16 extra photos. 

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Extremely Critical Fire Forecast for Southern California

Critical fire danger is in red. The purple area is designated "extremely critical. That includes areas to the north and northeast of downtown Los Angeles.

California Fire Weather Update

Until 5am PDT Monday. 
The purple area is described by SPC as "extremely critical" with the red "critical"

Here is a wider view.