Monday, November 12, 2018

Why I Love Cheering For Wichita State

Read this.

Fun Fact About Snow

As of this morning, Wichita's 2.6" of snow since July 1 (when the "snow year" begins) is more than we had all of last winter.

ADDITION: This is the snowiest start to a winter season since 1951.

Fascinating: Odds of Dying By Activity

Did you know riding in a car is much more dangerous than playing football*?

Did you know bicycling is more dangerous that bungee jumping?

As fascinating graphic is here. And, a great way to keep your family healthy is here.

*And, people who play soccer and hockey have a higher rate of elderly dementia than football players.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

9:45am Sunday Snow Update

Here is the new snow forecast (this does not include the snow that has already fallen with this system or the snow that will fall from now until noon). The amounts are rounded.

Here is the radar from 9:30am.
Be careful driving.

100th Anniversary of the WWI Armistice

The Liberty Memorial lit up with poppies to
commemorate the WWI armistice.
(via Twitter - click to enlarge)
Did you know Veteran's Day used to be called Armistice Day? That is because November 11 is the anniversary of the armistice that ended World War I? Today is the 100th anniversary of the end of WWI.

The United States' official World War I monument and memorial is the Liberty Memorial in Kansas City. It, and other buildings in downtown KC has been spectacularly lit to commemorate the end of the war. If you can get to KC to see the lighting and the amazing museum at the memorial, I urge you to do so.

Thank you to our veterans for their service to our nation. 

Our usual "Sunday Fun" feature will return next week.

Saturday, November 10, 2018

Sneaky Snow Storm

click to enlarge
Until this morning, many were forecasting "no accumulation." However, the latest data and model output indicates to me that light accumulations will occur in the Low Plains.

This blend of model forecasts looks good to me. The amounts are rounded to the nearest inch.

In Colorado and New Mexico the snow will begin tonight. Elsewhere, the snow will begin Sunday except in Missouri when it will begin Sunday night.

80th Anniversary of Kristallnacht

The Kristallnacht was the National Socialists (shortened to Nazi) first organized attack on the Jewish population of Germany. It was designed to appear to be a "spontaneous demonstration" as the result of the shooting of a diplomat on November 7. Many believe there was a more or less straight line from Kristallnacht to the Holocaust.

As we see Antifa and other violent extremist movements growing in the United States we must realize that if they continue to grow unchecked that, yes, it could happen here.

Below is from a series of tweets from Ms. Elisheva Avital (@ElishevaAvital) whose father had a photo album from WWII that was uncovered after his death two years ago. While I am reproducing them as best I can, I urge you to go to Twitter to see the originals. They will be a punch to your gut.

Thank you, Ms. Avital for your incredibly valuable tweets. 

California: Critical Fire Danger Continues

For the rest of today a serious fire danger continues.

The extreme danger returns to the Southland Sunday (arrow) in much the same area as yesterday.
It is impossible to over-emphasize the necessity of using extreme caution out-of-doors until this danger passes.

Some Thoughts on Reforming the Structure of the Catholic Church

While the catechism (the rules) of the Catholic Church are believed by Catholics to be divinely inspired and the way to attain Heaven, the structure of the Church itself is leading to scandal after scandal. Here are some important thoughts on reforming the Church.

Friday, November 9, 2018

California Fire Outlook for Next Seven Days

From Twitter, image sent at 3pm PST.

The latest fire satellite image from 3:12pm PST.

Here is the fire weather forecast for Saturday.

Here is the outlook for next week.
The most dangerous conditions are forecast for Southern California on Sunday and Tuesday.

This is the last update for today.

Fire Update at 1:50pm PST

Weather satellite image from 1:37pm PST. There are unconfirmed reports that some homes in the Malibu area have burned.

Below is a screen capture from ABC7 news at 1:50pm.

Below is the forecast for tomorrow, Saturday, when the greater threat shifts back to Northern California.
Thanks to the fire weather forecasters at the NWS SPC.

Malibu Fire Update: 12:30pm PST

Malibu Fire at 4:22am PST

Malibu Fire at 12:22pm PST

The new generation of weather satellites depict wildfires quickly and accurately. You can see how quickly this fire spread to the southwest.

The photo below indicates the smoke from the fire (white) that has spread out into the Pacific at 12:28pm PST.
Obviously, the air quality along the coast west of downtown Los Angeles is very poor.

"Get Out Now! The Fire Could Burn All the Way to the Coast"

UPDATE 11:14am PST: I have been comparing LA stations' news coverage and I am most impressed with ABC7's coverage. You can watch live here.

Here is the fire image from 11:07am PST.
For my friends in the Great Plains, think of the aftermath of a large fire as the same as the aftermath of a giant, F-5 tornado like Greensburg. Everything is gone.

9am PST fire image. The black is heated ground and the white is a fierce fire. 

Smoke from the fires near Malibu. 

If you have friends/relatives in the area, please call to make sure they are aware and that they leave. Thank you.

"Extremely Critical" Fire Risk in Southern California

The entire colored area is at serious risk. The pink area = "extremely critical."
Please use extreme caution today.

Central and South America Vacation Guide

Planning a winter vacation?
Ascel Bio has put together an excellent summary to help you plan a healthy winter vacation. For example what nations are Zika-free. The guide is here. 
The nations in green are Zika-free and
have the best health care in case you get sick on your vacation.
By using this guide, you maximize your chances of having a fun vacation while you stay well. After all, there's nothing fun about paying for a hotel and hospital room at the same time.

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Essential Reading After the Election

We are drifting farther and farther from Dr. King's dream. Some thoughts on moving forward here.

First Snow of the Season... occurring at the Smith House in far northeast Wichita.

In an Interconnected World, We Must Monitor Health Conditions Throughout

Ascel Bio
Austin Bay’s excellent StrategyPage blog has published a piece about the Ebola crisis in the Congo. The succinct piece on how the Congolese war may spread Ebola to the Sudan and beyond is here.  
That coincides with Ascel Bio’s independent assessment of the situation, which you can find here.  Ascel is closely monitoring the situation as the deadly Ebola virus has the potential to break out of Africa and into other parts of the world. 

In addition to Diseasecast (our unique disease forecast product for the public), Ascel provides services to public health and medical professionals throughout the world. I am an investor in the company and we are closely monitoring the situation. 

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

First Winter Weather of the Season

Here is the radar at 2:11pm CST. Already five inches of snow have fallen in the far northwest corner of Kansas.
The precipitation is moving east. Note the lightning symbol near Limon, Col. Thundersnow can cause quick accumulations.

Large parts of Kansas and Nebraska are under a winter weather advisory for one to four inches of snow accumulation starting tonight.
Remember: drivers often have issues with the first snow of the season. Take care.

UPDATED: Halloween Tornado Forecasts Revisited

You'll recall that meteorologists were quite concerned about tornadoes Halloween evening and overnight. One person died as a result of a nighttime tornado. Now that the "ground truth" surveys are complete, here is what actually happened.

Keep in mind the 5% (brown) area is the significant threat threshold and 10% (yellow) was an enhanced threat. Hatched was a forecast of strong tornadoes. UPDATED: November 7.
I believe you'll agree the forecast by the NWS Storm Prediction Center was excellent.

There was a close call due to lightning (h/t Brandon Sullivan) in central Texas. the frame shows lightning so close it completely whites out the camera.
The next freeze frame shows children running and screaming.
Children should never be allowed outside when thunderstorms threaten.

I had posted the lightning forecast and the central Texas area where the above video was taken was in the 40% area.
Weather forecasts and storm warnings are excellent tools to keep you and your family safe when extreme weather threatens. 


Elections Over, Thank Goodness

Congratulations to the winners of the election.
Laura Kelly, Kansas Governor-Elect
I'm always amused by the "what's the matter with Kansas" types who, against all evidence, believe Kansas to be Republican backwater. We elected a female Democratic governor last night (two of our last three gubernatorial administrations have been Democrats) and the first openly lesbian and first native American member of the U.S. House. We are tolerant, open-minded people.

I am a proud Kansan and if you are looking for opportunity there about a thousand great jobs open in the greater Wichita area. Come and check us out!

Some Ski Areas Are Opening Early

The ski season is beginning early at some Colorado resorts. This photo is from Breckenridge Peak 8, which is opening today. They've already had five feet so far this season.

It is another great early season at Arapahoe Basin.
Safe and Happy Skiing, Everyone!!

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

The Demeaning, Awful Nature of Flying Today

While service dogs (dogs to assist, for example, the blind) have always been allowed on airplanes, today's flights include a menagerie of animals to provide "comfort" which increases the chance that awful incidents like these could occur. Compounding the misery, as usual, was Delta's immediate response:
"She was dismissive and asked him what his problem was. Meanwhile, I'm covered in feces." Typical airline response.

Perhaps people of my age are cursed with the knowledge flying does not have to be this way. Meanwhile, Kathleen and I prefer to drive whenever possible with Amtrak as a second choice.