Friday, February 16, 2018

Update on Flood Threat and Drought Relief

Before we start the weekend, I wanted to update you on the threat of heavy rain (with flooding) and drought relief we talked about in yesterday's posting (scroll down) so that people in the affected areas can begin preparations.

Here is the new 10-day precipitation amount forecast from the European global model. It is valid through Monday the 26th.
click to enlarge
There are two important takeaways from this forecast.
  • The area where more than ten inches of rain is forecast has enlarged and shifted to the southwest. It now includes much of the Ozarks and extends to near the DFW Metroplex. I suggest you begin preparing for a flood if you live in a flood-prone area where heavy rains are forecast to occur. 
  • The west edge of the substantial rainfall has shifted west in the Great Plains catching a bit more of the winter wheat belt. This will be helpful to the winter wheat but will not entirely undo the drought damage. 
River flooding will likely last into March as there are at least two more storms that will affect the Great Plains the week of the 25th. These will cause additional substantial rainfall. 

For comparison, yesterday's 10-day forecast is below.
Typically, the longer range forecasts (beyond about four days) have a bias where they initially locate Great Plains rainfall/snowfall too far east. You can see that was the case here by examining the two forecasts. I expect only a slight additional westward shift in the model's forecast. 

I'll update on the long range rainfall and flood prospects on Monday. 

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