Thursday, February 23, 2017

An Interview With a Possible Science Advisor to President Trump

Andy Revkin has a great interview with Dr. Will Happer of Princeton, a candidate to be science advisor to President Trump.

I concur with Dr. Happer's views of global warming.

Update on Blizzard and Wildfire Risk

Here is AccuWeather's latest forecast of snowfall amounts.


Update on watch and warnings:
Orange is a blizzard warning. Pink is a winter storm warning (a slightly lesser condition). Blue is a winter weather advisory (a much lesser condition than a blizzard warning). Hunter green is a winter storm watch (Wisconsin area).

Gray is a dense fog advisory.

Magenta is a wildfire danger warning. Brown is a high wind warning. Below is the NWS's assessment of wildfire danger later today.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Lots of Watches and Warnings

Lots going on with this NWS map.

  • Orange is a blizzard warning (the most serious condition)
  • Pink is a winter storm warning.
  • Magenta in the southern Plains is a high fire risk. 
  • Lime green is a blizzard watch.
  • The hunter green in the Upper Midwest is a winter storm watch.
  • Green (Idaho) is a flood warning.
  • The purple in the intermountain region is a winter weather advisory. 

Here is a computer model forecast for noon Friday.
The low pressure system is on the Missouri-Iowa border. The solid lines are "isobars" = lines of equal barometric pressure. Where they are close together, the winds are high. Green is rain with darker colors corresponding to heavier rains. The orange and magenta are sleet and brief freezing rain. The purples are heavier snow (darker purples are heavier snow).

Lots of Severe Weather to Talk About

Florida

The meteorological situation has not developed in the way I originally forecast. There could still be an isolated tornado or a thunderstorm could cause a damaging wind gust today but the threat is not particularly high.


Blizzard

The forecast has not changed much. The blizzard begins later today with high winds and low visibilities throughout the region where heavy snow is forecast to fall. This is forecast to be the worst storm in six years in the Twin Cities. More details from AccuWeather.


Friday Severe Thunderstorm Situation

Damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible. Details from AccuWeather.

"A Drought Forever"

As you watch the images of California flooding, keep in mind the global warming crowd told us,

“We are in a drought forever,” Patzert said. “I can’t think of any scenario where we would have six wet El NiƱo years in a row, which would top out all the reservoirs and the ground water supply.”

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Update on Blizzard Forecast

Here is the forecast accumulation:
High winds and low visibilities will accompany the snow. Full details from AccuWeather.

Florida Tomorrow

Attention Florida readers. There is a chance of tornadoes in the Sunshine State tomorrow and tomorrow evening as a low pressure system in the upper atmosphere moves across the Peninsula.

I'll have an update tomorrow morning.

Essential Reading

I try not to label articles "essential" very often but this article from The Spectator certainly is. While it makes a number of valuable points about global warming, I would like to focus on this statement:

Two decades ago, air bags were made mandatory for all autos sold in the U.S. Over the years, the National Highway Safety Administration began to recognize research that found that air-bags could either deploy when inappropriate — even taking lives, especially of children — or not deploy in accident situations. But it refuses to reconsider its mandate or even to allow the removal of faulty airbags firing at 200 miles per hour when a scientific Journal of Trauma study reported by NIH found that airbags provided little protection beyond ordinary seatbelts.

Independent research of mine, while I was working on Warnings, revealed exactly the same thing. Please consider:
  • Airbags add about $1,000 to the cost of a new car. 
  • While driver's side airbags have some value, there is little or no value to passenger-side airbags, especially when the passenger is wearing a seatbelt. 
  • Yes, airbags are well-known to kill children on the passenger side.
  • Some of the best conversations I had with my children (before passenger-side airbags were mandatory) were when they were buckled into their car seats on the passenger side. Current and future generations should give this up because a federal bureaucracy cannot admit their (huge) mistake?
Putting aside global warming, there is a lot federal rule making that is based on bad science. 

Monday, February 20, 2017

Yes, A Blizzard


Weather Science Does It Again

According to preliminary reports, the tornado in San Antonio last night was preceded by a tornado warning. From the San Antonio Express News

Griffin said soon after she got the notification for a tornado warning last night she heard strong winds that sounded "just like a train" coming down her street.

and, later in the same article:

According to San Antonio Fire Department spokesman Woody Woodward, only five San Antonio residents had minor injuries in the storms, even though more than 100 homes were damaged. "Which is amazing," Woodward said.
Again, while preliminary, it is not so much amazing as it is the warning system. Congratulations to the NWS and everyone involved!

Sunday Fun: Chemistry as Practiced in D.C.

Yes, she really said that (in 2008).

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Slight Tornado Risk Today

The area in brown has a significant risk of a tornado or two later today. This includes Wichita Falls, Lawton and far west part of DFW Metroplex. Stay tuned to the weather in your area if thunderstorms approach.

Sunday Fun: Wichita is One of America's Most Artistic Cities

While this doesn't surprise residents, it may surprise those living in the rest of the nation. As Expedia, in an article about America's most artistic cities says,

In true hipster fashion, if you want the insider scoop on the best art towns in America while they’re still under the radar, there’s no better place to be than Wichita.

This is one of the greatest places in the country to live and visit. Come and see us!

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Another Foot of Rain in California

Yes, that is another 12+" forecast for the watershed above the Oroville Dam (which appears to be fixed) and another nearly 10 inches forecast in the coastal mountains just south of San Francisco. This is going to touch off another round of serious flooding.

As to my comment (below) about the possibility of severe weather tomorrow in the Great Plains, here is the risk map.
On this map, 15% (yellow) is the significant threshold. Here, the main threats are wind gusts of 60 mph with thunderstorms and some storms with 1" in diameter.

Saturday Weather RoundUp

The storm in California was, unfortunately, as bad as I thought. There is excellent coverage at the Los Angeles Times

There is a risk of flash flooding in the Southwest Desert region today and tonight.

There is, yet another, flooding threat to central and northern California.

There is some risk of severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains on Sunday. More on that later.

Friday, February 17, 2017

This May Be the Most Intense Storm in Southern California Since 1983

Here is a regional radar map from the NWS:

The line of thunderstorms is now approaching San Diego.
Damaging winds and flash flooding are likely.

My Apology

I am dealing with some family medical issues and will not have a blog update today. Hope to have one tomorrow. I hope you will understand.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Major Flood Threat Throughout California

More highly dangerous flooding likely for California. 

Before getting into the serious topic of the floods that will occur as a result of latest storm to affect California, it need to point out another catastrophically wrong forecast from climate 'science.' The 100-year drought ended 97 years early.
That terrible forecast enabled politicians and other decision makers to defer maintenance on dams and other projects to bring water to a thirsty state.

Now, to the issue of more torrential rain coming to California.
Yes, the NWS is forecasting 13.4" of rain over the next seven days in the Oroville River/Dam's watershed. It is also forecasting as much as 10.9 inches of rain near Santa Barbara with heavy rains extending east into the mountains above the Los Angeles basin.

Given the wet soil and already high levels of water in reservoirs and rivers, flooding will likely occur in areas that rarely flood. If you live in one of those areas, I urge you to plan now!
  • Pack valuables in a "go kit" -- so you can rapidly put them in your car if called to evacuate quickly. 
  • Make sure you have plenty of cash.
  • Your car should be filled with fuel.
  • Cell phone and laptop should be kept fully charged.
Good luck. I'll keep updating on this situation.

ADDITION: 11:21pm PST from the NWS in Sacramento.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Another Day With a Tornado Risk

The 2017 tornado season has been much more active than last year's to this point. We had six tornadoes in Texas yesterday with four in the Houston metro area.

We have a risk of tornadoes in the Southeast today.
I have included the scale. The threshold I consider significant (enough to make me want to monitor the weather when thunderstorms approach) is 5% (brown). The highest probabilities are very rarely used values of 45% and 60%. The definition of the probability is the chance of one or more tornadoes within 25 miles of any given point. When you see black hatching it means the tornadoes are forecast by the NWS Storm Predication Center to be "significant" -- meaning EF-2 or stronger in intensity.

But, We Are Supposed to "Trust Science"


Or, as Slate writes further into the article,

A decade later, comprehensive smoking bans have proliferated globally. And now that the evidence has had time to accumulate, it’s also become clear that the extravagant promises made by anti-smoking groups—that implementing bans would bring about extraordinary improvements in cardiac health—never materialized. 

Yet, we are supposed to completely overturn the world economy and spend $19 Trillion (yes, trillion) dollars on less-reliable energy sources because of scientific studies of the same quality as the one in Helena.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Valentine's Day Suggestion

If you haven't made a plan for this evening for you and your sweetheart, may I suggest taking him or her to see La La Land? It is the perfect Valentine's Day movie.

New Tornado Watch


Gulf Coast Tornado Risk

The brown and yellow areas have a significant risk through this evening.

There is currently a tornado warning in the Houston area.
Please keep up on the weather in this region.

Sometimes Old Advice is Worth Repeating

Older men should not shovel heavy snow. Details here.

I finally hired a shoveling service three years ago and haven't missed a minute of it.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Heads Up: Western Gulf Coast Region

The National Weather Service is quite concerned about tornadoes as well as severe thunderstorms in the region tomorrow.
Please keep in mind that 15% (yellow) is the significant threshold on this particular map.

If you live in the region, please monitor the weather all day tomorrow.

AccuWeather Still Up and Running!

UPDATE: 3:10PM CST: Pleased to report the NWS has fixed the outage and data is now flowing normally. 


Original Posting

From the Washington Post:

This what people seeking radar data from the National Weather Service are currently receiving. 
Sorry to report the National Weather Service (NWS) is experiencing a nationwide data interruption that includes radar and other important data. At this point, the loss of data is approaching 2.5 hours.
Fortunately, AccuWeather has a number of redundant sources for data and we are able to service our clients and the public with no interruption in radar or any other data.

This outage affects the NWS itself. Even with a blizzard in New England and a storm in Texas, their national weather radar map is blank.
Had this occurred last week at this time, users would not have been able to receive radar information as the New Orleans tornado was occurring.

In the meantime, AccuWeather is serving all of its users as we normally do.
We invest considerable sums on redundancy and data quality. That investment pays off on days like this.

UPDATE: 3:01PM CST: Just received an email from a user in California asking if competitors of ours would have radar data right now. The answer is, in at least some cases, "no." Below is a radar image from a competitor from moments ago. Compare the two times.
In other words, the radar image is nearly three hours old.

It isn't just the public. Emergency managers, broadcasters, and others who rely directly on the NWS and on some of AccuWeather's competitors cannot get the critical radar information they need. The Washington Post reports on the outage.

When I recommend AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions to businesses it isn't just because I work for the company. It is because I see, every day, the time, money and effort we put into our business to be the very best when severe or extreme weather occurs.

The End of California's 'Permanent' Drought

A nice posting at WattsUpWithThat. 

So far, the spillway has held. I wonder if all of the "permanent drought" nonsense caused by the global warming crowd provided a rationalization for delaying necessary water projects.

The last I heard, the spillway has held. The Sacramento Bee has had good coverage.

UPDATE 7:38am. Sure enough. Warnings of the dam's failure were not acted upon.

Heavy rains expected the next seven days.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Dam Failure Crisis in California

The auxiliary spillway on the Oroville Dam is likely to fail within the hour according to news reports.
The town of Oroville, immediately downstream, is being evacuated on an emergency basis. Traffic is gridlocked just outside of town. Evacuations are being conducted downstream in the river's flood plain.

Here is a link to The Sacramento Bee's emergency coverage.

UPDATE 6:53PM PST:

California Department of Water Resources has released this photo of the damaged spillway.

UPDATE 6:59PM PST: If you need an inundation map, it is here.

Here is the NWS's flash flood and flood warnings:
This is the last update on this situation. Please check the purple link above for updates. 

No Posting Today

My apology. I'm fighting a rough sinus infection and my creative juices are not flowing today.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Read a (Free!) Sample of "Warnings"

All authors are proud of their books. I'm especially proud after the amazing performance of weather science community in regard to the New Orleans tornado earlier this week. An F-3 tornado in a densely populated area with no loss of life. That is a major accomplishment that has not received anywhere near the attention it should have.

The story of how the warning system almost did not come to be and the courageous meteorologists who staked their careers to support it is a fascinating one. So, here is the introduction and first chapter of Warnings free. If you like what you read, please buy a copy of the book.

Please note that, other than for my books and speeches, this blog has no advertising. So, if you like what you read in my book(s) or on this blog, please show the love by treating yourself to a great book (5-Star Rating at both Amazon and B&N).

Thursday, February 9, 2017

On a "Tiny Scale"

Dr. Judith Curry, a genuine climate scientist, discusses the scandal at NOAA regarding their temperature data and the effects of additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The Blizzard is Underway!

See the lightning bolts depicted across Connecticut? Yes, that is thunderssnow. The rates of snowfall have been very high. Albany, NY, for example, received 4" in one hour bringing their total to 8". LaGuardia (NYC) has 9 inches.

Don't even think about flying into the Northeast today.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Want to Know How We Warn of Tornadoes Like Yesterday's in New Orleans?

The answers to that, how we warn of hurricanes and how we prevent plane crashes are all here.
This book, of which I am very proud, has a 5-Star rating at both Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Check it out!

New Orleans: "Your Forecasts Were Spot-On"

"Spot on." Those are words that every meteorologist wants to hear, especially when they apply to a storm like the one that devastated New Orleans yesterday. 

Before going any farther, I wish to congratulate the National Weather Service (NWS) on its warning of the storm. The NWS's job is to warn the public-at-large of dangerous storms and they did that yesterday. The result: No deaths.

AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions provides precision warnings as needed by specific business and enterprise clients. Our clients told us we did an outstanding job, including the "spot-on" comment by Norris Yarbrough, Asst. Vice President of Emergency Services and Preparedness for Tulane University. We provided warnings for their three campuses, including the Tulane Medical Center, along with multiple telephone briefings while the crisis unfolded.
Rotation developing west of New Orleans yesterday morning.
There are those that misunderstand what AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions does: Unlike others, we do not repackage NWS warnings. We create our own using our unique technology and highly qualified meteorologists certified to provide warning services to our clientele.

For example: We issued our first tornado warning for New Orleans at 10:28am. We told our clients we were expecting the tornado to develop between 10:40 and 11:30am CST. The reason for issuing the warning before it goes into effect is to allow our clients to know how much time they have to prepare for the storm. The NWS's tornado warning was issued 24 minutes after ours and, like all of their warnings, went into effect immediately.

None of this is to criticize the NWS. Our missions differ. Some of our clients tell us they need extra time to prepare for these storms.

So, hats off to the amazing team at AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions. And, if you business is affected by weather, call us today!

Blizzard Forecast in the Northeast

Please take this storm seriously, especially if you were planning to travel to the region tomorrow. 

Here is AccuWeather's latest snowfall forecast for the Northeast.

High winds will accompany the storm creating blizzard conditions.
AccuWeather has full details on the storm here.

The airlines have issued "waivers" for passengers who had plans to fly into the region tomorrow. Please go to your specific airlines' web site.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Close to Our Clients! A Day With AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions & Norfolk Southern

We will trudge through snow and wear protective goggles to insure we understand our clients' businesses and, thereby, their requirements for information about extreme weather. 

My monthly edition of Trains arrived in today's mail. 

It has an article (p. 20) titled "Where Diesels Go to the Doctor." The story is about Norfolk Southern's Juniata Repair Shops. By coincidence, on a snowy day in Pennsylvania last week, the AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions' team traveled to Altoona to learn about how railroads maintain their locomotives and other equipment.

The place is gigantic. Of course, it would be to maintain locomotives and related equipment.


Safety is of critical importance to Norfolk Southern. That is why they use AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions to insure they get critical warnings of extreme weather.

The team posing for pictures as the snow flies.

Is your business affected by weather or climate? If so, we urge you to give us a call. You'll learn how we can make your business safer and more profitable.