Two important things have occurred since the update below.
The storm has weakened a bit due to interaction with Cuba. The satellite image is from 10:30pm. Compare it to the image below. The blacks on the west side of the eye have dissipated for the time being. The temporary weakening is confirmed by data from the Hurricane Hunters.
It appears "the turn" is occurring. The eye is clearly moving away from the Cuban land mass. Compare the image above to the image from 11:20pm.
What does this mean?
- There is more time for Irma to regain strength as it moves across the Florida Straits. I fully expect it to be Category 5 when it reaches Florida.
- As such, the forecast peak gusts below come into play. There is a small area in the central and northern Keys and southwest Miami-Dade could see 140-160 mph gusts (arrow).
- Gusts of 100 mph could extend as far north as Jacksonville.
While Tampa and Naples are still in jeopardy (see below), now that the turn has occurred, I believe the graphic represents the best depiction of Irma's winds, assuming I am correct about it being Cat 5 at landfall.