Monday, July 3, 2017

If You Want to Save Lives From Major Storms Just...

...add CO2 -- the evil greenhouse gas -- to the atmosphere. While that comment is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, it isn't entirely TIC.

Let us begin with the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Regardless of the addition of CO2, as we have written many times before, there is no upward trend in hurricane, tornado or any other type of storm deaths in spite of what you have read in the media and elsewhere. Here's proof:

Worldwide Total Weather-Related Deaths
Please note: The above graph is total number of deaths. In spite of a 20-fold increase in population, weather-related deaths have plummeted to a tiny fraction of what they were 90 years ago. Of course, much of this is due to better warning systems, better communications and better emergency management techniques. That said, the forecast of a relentless rise in climate deaths ("climate refugees") could not be more wrong.

United States Hurricanes Are Not Getting Worse
Remember how, after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the media was filled with "hurricanes are going to get worse!" stories? Here is how well that forecast has worked out.
At the bottom of each bar in the bar graph is the concentration of CO2 at the start of that decade. As the concentration of CO2 has gone up, the number of major (at least Cat 3 intensity) hurricanes to strike the United States has gone down -- way down!

Tornadoes
A recent episode of Weather Geeks had a meteorologist researcher proclaim there is "no signal" in the trend of tornadoes. Wrong. He didn't want a trend because the pro-global warming crowd wants us to believe global warming is more serious than it is. I agree with him that the data on all tornadoes is unreliable due to changes in radar, storm chasing, etc. But, for strong tornadoes, we have a pretty good idea of how many occur each year. The trend in strong tornadoes the last 50 years? Down.

Conclusion
Yes, global warming is a genuine issue. And, some of its effects are serious. But, weather-related storms are not getting worse in the United States or worldwide.

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