Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Gorgeous Time Lapse

Take just two minutes and 15 seconds and watch this. It is a supercell (with tornado) forming and then merging with a second storm.

Monday, June 26, 2017

"The Science Police"

On highly charged issues, such as climate change and endangered species, peer review literature and public discourse are aggressively patrolled by self-appointed sheriffs in the scientific community.

A must-read article, here.

H/T: Judy Curry.

Update on Flooding Risk

Here is the 7-day rainfall amount forecast.
I continue to be worried about flooding from northern Missouri into Michigan (where rivers are already running high). In addition, it looks like an active week for severe thunderstorms starting tomorrow. I'll have more on that later in the day.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Friday, June 23, 2017

Thanks For the 5-Star Review

Thank you for the latest 5-Star Amazon review from a verified purchaser. It is much appreciated.

Ohio Valley Tornado Threat Today

There is an area with a significant tornado risk today and that is in the southern Ohio Valley.
If you live in the area shaded in brown, I recommend you keep an eye on the weather.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Thursday 10:45am: Tornado and Flood Threat From Cindy

Cindy, itself, is inland and weakening. However, the threat for tornadoes and serious flooding continues.

Here is the latest on the tornado threat from Tropical Storm Cindy:
The area in brown is the significant threat area for tornadoes until 7am Friday.

Heavy rain has fallen throughout the central Gulf Coast region. Below is the actual rainfall for the last seven days. I chose that number to illustrate how saturated the ground is already. More than ten inches have fallen in the purple areas.

Here is the forecast for additional rainfall until 7am Monday.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Major Flood Threat

I continue to be concerned about serious flooding as rainfalls up to eight inches are forecast with Tropical Storm Cindy. Please keep advised as to local forecasts and warnings.

Spectacular Weather Video

This is just terrific.

FRACTAL - 4k StormLapse from Chad Cowan on Vimeo.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Flood and Tornado Risk: Gulf Coast

With the weak system in the tropics headed for the Texas-Louisiana area, here are some forecasts I want to bring to your attention.

There is a significant risk of weak tornadoes (but all tornadoes are dangerous) along the immediate Gulf coast. There have already been tornado warnings this morning.

The more widespread threat is flooding.
Here is the rainfall among forecast for the next three days. Flooding is a possibility in the areas with heavier rains. 

Update on "Warnings"

There are a few hardcover copies around still. While Amazon is out of hard cover copies, one of its suppliers says they have at least one.

There are two other alternatives: If you wish to obtain a hard cover copy, personally autographed, send $25.00 (including tax and shipping) to: Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC, 4031 N Tara, Wichita, Kansas 67226. Be sure and let us know how you want the autograph to read.

The second is to read it on Kindle, Nook or Amazon's free cloud reader. The ebook version has eight extra photos we were not able to get into the hardcover version.

Happy Reading!!

Monday, June 19, 2017

This is a Terrible Day to Fly

Wow, it has been a long time since I have seen a list of airports, coast-to-coast, with serious weather problems this long. Here it is as of 9:55am CDT:
  • Boston
  • DFW International
  • Dallas Love
  • Newark
  • JFK
  • Los Angeles
  • LaGuardia
  • Philadelphia
  • Seattle
And, this is just the beginning. Strong thunderstorms are forecast to begin after noon Central / 1pm Eastern in the yellow and orange areas.
This means that Washington, Baltimore, the Washington, Albany and Richmond airports will get into the act and that Raleigh and Charlotte may, also. Atlanta may have a non-severe thunderstorm. 

You might think, "But, I am flying to Minneapolis, which isn't on your list." True. But, with planes going back and forth to hubs the problems quickly spread. So, here is what I suggest:
  • If there is an earlier flight, take it. Earlier is better when thunderstorms threaten.
  • Patience, patience, patience. 
  • Buy snacks and water but no so much you'll get stuffed. With thunderstorms comes turbulence.
  • The information on the airline's web sites are often better than what the employees can tell you at the airport.
  • Finally, they won't do much for you because this is due to "weather." If it looks really bad, get a hotel room on your dime. Rebook from your room. Some of the airlines have a "we'll call you back" feature. Use it. 
Good luck!!

I Have a Relative That Says This

Via Twitter.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Sunday Fun: "Picnic" and the Tornado

Via The Wichita Eagle
A fascinating vignette from a story about the restoration of a Kansas bridge made famous by the movie, Picnic. The Wichita Eagle explains in the story about the bridge and its fame,

While the movie was being filmed in Kansas, Udall was struck by a tornado, killing more than 75 people, injuring more than three-fourths of the town and destroying 192 buildings.
After the Udall tornado, the Hollywood film crew turned to Cecil Carrier, a local weather TV forecaster, to help soothe the nerves of Novak. 
She wanted to have a personal briefing each day, because she was frightened of tornadoes.

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/state/article151876302.html#storylink=cpy
Because there was zero warning, the Udall tornado, which killed 77 (out of a population of 500), was an especially terrifying event. I had never heard about Cecil and Kim Novak. Thank you, Beccy Tanner, for your interesting story!

BTW: Significant tornadoes are much less common in Kansas than people from outside the Great Plains believe. It was 55 years (Greensburg) before another tornado of that type occurred again in our state.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

If You Are Flying East Monday...

...it looks like a mess. This is SPC's forecast of severe thunderstorms from 7am Monday to 7am Tuesday. Yellow (15%) is the significant threshold. The red area is double that. It is forecasting the chance of large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.
If this is a good forecast, the airlines will melt down. So, I suggest the following:

  • See if the airline will let you go tomorrow.
  • Or, go Monday morning when the thunderstorms will be less widespread.
If you are flying Monday afternoon or evening, be prepared for major delays. 

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Heads Up: Kansas, Northern Oklahoma, Western Missouri

A very strong line of thunderstorms is moving across Kansas overturning 18-wheelers, causing small tornadoes and power failures. It looks like it will sweep across Wichita and Topeka in the next few hours and into western Missouri and northern Oklahoma before it is finished.

  • Please monitor local television and radio.
  • Prepare for power failures that may last more than a few hours.
  • Take care of infirm friends and relatives well before the storms arrive.
  • Put the car in the garage.
  • Bring in lawn furniture and trampolines and other items that might blow about.
This will be my only blog update on these storms. Follow me on Twitter:  @usweatherexpert 

And, They Want Us to Send Them More Money So They Can 'Fight' Global Warming

According to the Associated Press, the WHO routinely has spent about $200 million a year on travel expenses—more than what it spends to fight AIDS and hepatitis ($70.5 million), tuberculosis ($59 million), and malaria ($61 million) combined.

The story is here. The WMO's (United Nations' World Health Organization) plan for combatting global warming is here and it says,

in 2015, the WHO Executive Board endorsed a new work plan on climate change and health. This includes: 
  • Partnerships: to coordinate with partner agencies within the UN system, and ensure that health is properly represented in the climate change agenda.
  • Awareness raising: to provide and disseminate information on the threats that climate change presents to human health, and opportunities to promote health while cutting carbon emissions. 
  • Science and evidence: to coordinate reviews of the scientific evidence on the links between climate change and health, and develop a global research agenda. 
  • Support for implementation of the public health response to climate change: to assist countries to build capacity to reduce health vulnerability to climate change, and promote health while reducing carbon emissions.
I, for one, am certainly glad they are "raising awareness" because no one has never heard of global warming or climate change, right?

One of the Instapundit commenters said,
Fact: Malaria in Africa is an annual catastrophe: One million easily and inexpensively preventable deaths each year. We know exactly how to solve this problem and save these lives.

Given these deaths are easily preventable and we have no idea what would occur (Better weather, worse weather? We don't know.) if we lowered CO2 levels, let's take care of malaria. Then, ask for funds to combat global warming.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Tornado Watch: South Dakota, Wyoming and Nebraska

Tornado watch in effect until 2am MDT/ 3am CDT.

PDS Tornado Watch: Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming

This is a big deal. Please make sure your friends and
relatives are aware of the situation.
Please also make sure children and the infirm can get to shelter on short notice. 
There is a "high" chance of violent, long-track tornadoes as well as 4" diameter (!) hail. The watch includes Ft. Collins, Sterling, Wheatland and other cities in addition to the ones listed. It is vital you monitor the weather situation if you live in the tornado watch area. 

PDS = "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch. It is in effect until 8pm MDT. 

Flood Risk in Montana and Idaho

More than four inches of rain are forecast to fall in the next two days over western Montana and northern Idaho.

Large Area of Tornado Risk Today

The significant (5%, brown) area of tornado risk extends from Monday to the Mississippi River to the northern suburbs of Denver. The 15% area represents a serious risk with the hatching a forecast of violent tornadoes. There is also a risk of large hail throughout the region.

I urge people in this region to keep a close eye on the weather later today. There is also a meteorological research project going on in the area. If you see odd-looking vehicles, please be courteous and let them move about.

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Tornado Risk: Wisconsin & Upper Michigan

We have a tornado risk over northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan later today.

Also, the risk of a damaging wind event, large hail and, perhaps, a tornado has increased tomorrow.
This includes the Twin Cities.

Updated Wheat Harvest Forecast

From now until Sunday evening: No thunderstorms or showers in the area where the harvest is taking place.

Sunday evening, as a front moves into the High Plains, a couple of thunderstorms could cause some light rainfalls.

A few thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening but amounts will be quite light. Wednesday is the next time that significant rain is forecast in the areas where the harvest will be occurring. Note: These comments apply only to areas where the harvest is projected to be occurring on the days in question.
Good luck!!

Friday, June 9, 2017

Wheat Harvest Weather

For the next four and a half days, dry conditions are expected in Kansas and Oklahoma.
The green you see is rainfall amounts (now until 7pm Tuesday) of less than 0.1 inches except the darker greens which are right around a tenth. With the warm weather and lower humidity, harvest conditions should be ideal.

Tornado Risk Today: North Dakota

For the first time in nearly two weeks, we have a significant, 5% (brown), risk of tornadoes in North Dakota and adjacent areas of Manitoba. Please keep up on the weather in this region.


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Thursday, June 8, 2017

Thank You

Thank you, Pinterest. 
I want to thank the many fans of Warnings. They apparently found another copy in some warehouse.

See You in Madison, Wisconsin, on August 2

I will be part of a group, led by the Washington Post's Jason Samenow, to discuss blogging about weather. The panel discussion will be at 11:30am (lunch discussion) at the Madison Concourse Hotel.

See you then!!

No Posting Today

I apologize but I will not be able to get a new posting up today.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

The Eclipse is No Good if it is Cloudy

Thanks to NOAA, here is a map showing the historical amount of cloudiness on August 21. Good luck!!
click to enlarge

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Could This Be the Last?

Someone grabbed that last copy (thank you!!). The message below means they are searching their wholesalers to see if they can find an additional copy(s). I doubt they will find much. If that changes, I will let you know.

Original Posting:
I do not know. It is possible that Amazon has access to a small number at Ingrams or one of the other wholesalers. The "more on the way" is automatically generated. That stayed up for a time when Sirens sold out even though we told them we were completely out.
click to enlarge
So, if you wish to buy a hardcover copy of the book through Amazon, it is best to act fast.

Note: I will continue to sell the hardcover copies I have with free autographs for $25. If you don't care about the autograph, then Amazon is the less expensive way to go.

Forecaster Evie Update

I've gotten some questions, "Where is Forecaster Evie? Haven't seen her lately."

Forecaster Evie is doing great. A thunderstorm had just cleared Emporia a few days ago, so we went out to watch a train being made up at BNSF's Emporia yard with assistant forecaster Jillian and Mom Tiffany. The train's engineer came over and spoke with us before the train got underway.

Four other trains came through while we were watching and Miss Evie was quite excited, "I see the lights!" as they approached. Evie loves trains and the weather and watching customers of AccuWeather helps her sharpen her forecasting skills!

I was teaching her that altocumulus castellanus clouds (background of photo) in the afternoon often precede thunderstorms. Sure enough, about two hours later (see below)...
Thanks for asking about her.

Monday, June 5, 2017

See A Tornado? Mow the Lawn!

I've been asked by several people on Facebook and Twitter what I think of the wonderful photo of a picturesque tornado and a guy mowing the lawn in Canada
It is a great photo. It is one of a series taken by his wife. As to whether it was safe, I certainly wouldn't mow the lawn the close to a tornado simply because it is possible a piece of debris could fall on me, plus I would want to see a tornado that spectacular. That said, they asked the guy mowing the lawn and he replied that he was, "keeping an eye on it."

Sunday, June 4, 2017

No, Mr. Gore, Missouri is Not in a "Drought Emergency"

Mr. Gore was on Fox News Sunday and told us that Missouri declared a "drought emergency two days ago." Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index.
There is no drought in Missouri. Most of what Mr. Gore said about weather in the United States was wrong.

Global Warming: A Way Forward

For those wanting a reminder about the general approach I believe we should take with regard to global warming. It is from Bjorn Lomborg.

Sunday Fun: Yes, This is Kansas

Photo courtesy of Beccy Tanner, this is the Jerusalem Rocks area of west central Kansas.

Friday, June 2, 2017

The Paris Freakout in One Great Cartoon

I woke up this morning to find 40 (!) responses from unhappy people on my Twitter account. Facebook had more than 50. Many of them telling me:
  • It is OK for the borough of Manhattan to burn literally millions of lights (and, create greenhouse gas) to fight creating greenhouse gas. It had to do with my criticism of lightning up buildings to criticize Trump. ADDITION: Let me try this again, because the criticism keeps coming. If you want to protest the generation of greenhouse gas TURN THE LIGHTS OFF. That makes a far better protest than "changing the color of lights that would have been on anyway." And, no, other than a navigation light at the top of the spire, the lights at the top of the WTC are not required to be on at all times. 
  • Yes, Paris accomplishes almost nothing but it was a great symbol (their word, used more than once).
  • No one was telling me where we'd get the more than one trillion needed to pay for the US commitment to the symbol. 
But, the best exchange came from WattsUpWithThat (go read the whole thing!). Here is an excerpt:
And, the brilliant Cartoon's by Josh came back with this:

Thursday, June 1, 2017

To My Many Liberal Friends

"Enemy of Life on Earth"

To my many liberal friends: Want more Republicans in Congress? Want Trump to be reelected to a second term?

Then, keep doing these silly total freakouts completely out of proportion to the facts of a situation.

The Paris Agreement was a joke that even Dr. James Hansen condemned. 
Trillions, yes, trillions of dollars for almost no positive effect. 0.01°C of averted warming? We can’t even measure that amount.

My point is the freakout over Paris today, and, all these others (Russians "hacking" the election, the money to the Saudi's, pussyhats, etc.) are doing nothing but reinforcing the people who voted for Trump. They think you are crazy.  Trump made a cogent, reasonable speech today. You may not have liked its content, which is fine. But, when statements are made like the one at the top of this posting, you come across as crazy to moderates and conservatives. 

Don’t be crazy.

Drought Relief

While the U.S. is at record low drought, Florida needs rain badly and there are some other pockets of dry weather in the South, including Texas.
Fortunately, it is going to be wet in the areas that need it most the next week.
For once, Mother Nature is lining up the rain with the areas that need it the most.

Danger! Don't Click on This Site

This is what happens when you click on a link floating around the internet to purportedly get a free copy of Warnings. 
The problem is that, instead of Warnings, you get a virus! Don't fall for these sites!