The way this works: I make a general severe weather forecast based on tried and true techniques and then I look at the computer models. My forecast indicated a generally high risk of tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma. The computer models in the pre-dawn hours Thursday were terrifying: huge, long-track tornadoes hitting population centers.
Still, there was some doubt. Some of the forecast models Thursday morning showed "too many" thunderstorms for many violent tornadoes. If there are too many storms, they "compete" with each other for unstable air and become less prolific tornado and hail producers. Here is a paragraph from yesterday's forecast.
How was the forecast? The red dots are tornado locations.
While none of these were huge, violent tornadoes (think Greensburg or Joplin), there were many tornadoes in exactly the area where they were forecast, with the exception of the southeast Colorado tornado. Regardless we need to reach out to those who were affected by yesterday's storms.
|"Wichita Eagle" photo of Great Bend-area man looking at his destroyed home and car from yesterday's tornado.|
I believe that my prayers and the prayers of many were answered yesterday. No widespread damage; no serious injuries. I regret that events were postponed in Wichita and OKC and throughout the region without a tornado occurring but it sure beats the alternative!