Monday, March 20, 2017

Detailed Long Term Rainfall Outlook

Because of the critical nature of the rainfall outlook for the Great Plains, I am putting together this comprehensive outlook. If you have friends or associates that would benefit from this information, I invite you to forward it to them.

Wildfire Danger, Before the Rains Arrive
There is another period of high wildfire danger before the rains begin Thursday night.

Next Five Days
I believe these amounts are a little on the low side in Kansas and Oklahoma but this is where we are going to begin.

Rainfall PATTERN for Ten Days
It is very important as you view these that these are generalized, smoothed forecast of the rainfall pattern. Do not use them to determine rainfall at a particular spot.
ECMWF smoothed
GFS Smoothed
This CMC data is not smoothed, so it is especially important not to use it to assign an amount to a particular location. I'm simply showing this to show that three of the best meteorological models in the world are all coming to the same conclusion.
CMC unsmoothed
Rainfall PATTERN for 15 Days
ECMWF smoothed
GFS Smoothed
Rainfall Pattern for April 1 to 14
I am not a big fan of these experiment outlooks because they are often incorrect. These outlooks are often of inconsistent quality. However, there are a number of indicators beyond what is in the computer models that point toward the wet period continuing into early April. So, I am going ahead and showing it.

So, the bottom line is that rainfall over the Great Plains the next month should be wetter than normal. Very good news, indeed.

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