Sunday, October 9, 2016

The Forecast of Matthew Versus Reality

click to enlarge
As I have stated many times, we have the ability to make outstanding forecasts and we did. Yes, I thought the eye would go inland which means I was off by 20 miles. However, that was about the diameter of the eye at the time. We have gotten really good, but not perfect.

The thing to keep in mind is that wind force is a squared function. Here are some real examples that I measured on this blog while the storm was 17 mi. off the coast of Florida:
70 mph squared = 4900 units of force
123 mph squared = 15190 units of force

I don't want to take the chance that that a slight wobble (which eye's often do) would have brought catastrophic winds inland that very few miles. So, it is my opinion that weather science did -- again -- an outstanding job with this storm when it counted. 

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