Thursday, September 1, 2016

Noon Update on Hermine

Hermine is getting closer to the coast and AccuWeather has a full summary of the situation. I want to add some things our readers might find interesting. Just click on the link for our coverage on the storm.
Hermine at noon Central time. 
The storm, while better organized than yesterday, is still intensifying only slowly.

Here is an idea of the forecast geographic distribution of the winds with the storm.
This AccuWeather's model's forecast of the storm's position and gusts as of 4am 11pm Thursday (pardon my error) Eastern time. The yellow indicates the zone of uncertainty: Meaning the eye could shift anywhere in the area indicated when it makes landfall.

Note the stronger wind gusts are more in the eastern half of the storm, which is what one would expect from meteorological theory.

What can Florida residents expect as peak winds at landfall? The worst case scenario to me would be an upper limit of 90 mph on the coastal islands and right at the beaches. Of course, wind speeds drop rapidly away from the coast due to friction. AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions clients, of course, can get the peak wind forecast for their specific locations by calling our meteorologists at any time. In fact, we have been on the phone with many clients this morning and we routinely do conference calls for our clients in these situations.

The remains of Hermine have a chance of restrengthening if the system gets over the warm water of the Gulf Stream late in the weekend. That could put a serious damper on Labor Day weather. Stay turned, I'll have more on that late this afternoon or evening.

Finally, as pointed out yesterday, flooding is a serious threat with Hermine. The forecast map below is still valid but I will update everything this evening.

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