Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Some Updates to the Midwest Tornado and Damaging Wind Risks

The Storm Prediction Center has revised its forecasts somewhat and, while I agree with the direction they are taking, I don't think the tornado revision is revised enough.
This is the tornado risk, which you can compare to their earlier forecast below. Remember, 5% (brown) is the significant risk for tornadoes. Hatching means strong (EF2 or greater) tornadoes are possible. Note they have added the City of Chicago in the "strong" tornado risk area and have extended the strong tornado risk into northwest Illinois I agree with that.

However, there is so much rain-cooled air over northeast Illinois, that the warm front might set up farther southwest than some of the forecast tools currently indicate. If that is correct, any thunderstorm that can set going in the purple area certainly has tornado potential. So, I recommend people in the SPC+my tornado risk area closely monitor the weather if thunderstorms approach

Hail Risk

Earlier today, the hail risk didn't seem particularly high anywhere in the Midwest. That has changed. Several tools -- including AccuWeather's model -- indicate the hatched area -- again, including Chicago -- has a risk of 2" inches or greater in size. Put those cars in the garage!

Damaging Wind Risk Area
I expect a "derecho" --a meteorologists' name for a long-lived, severe wind event -- in the hatched area. A few areas could have gusts to 85 mph causing power failures. Some of those failures could be long-lived. This forecast is unchanged from earlier this morning. Some of the severe storms will continue well into the night.

While I no longer live-blog storms, I will update at least 2-3 times this afternoon and evening.

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