Sunday, May 22, 2016

Very Active Weather Pattern This Week

The change in weather pattern got started yesterday evening with three tornadoes in northwest Kansas. The tornado threat is going to spread today and slowly make its way east tomorrow and Tuesday.

Sunday
For tornadoes, 5% is the significant threat (when broken out separately from large hail and damaging winds). This afternoon and evening's threat extends from southwest Kansas to west central Texas.
This is a revised forecast at 8:13am. 

Monday
Unfortunately, the SPC does not break out the tornado risk separately beyond the first day. For the combined probabilities 15% (yellow) is the significant threshold. The hatched area is where very large hail and tornadoes (in my opinion) are more likely to occur. 

Tuesday
From Nebraska to parts of northwest Texas, severe thunderstorms with very large hail will be widespread along with damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Rainfall Forecast
Here is the rainfall amount forecast from now until 7am Wednesday morning.

More thunderstorms are forecast later in the week. Stay tuned!

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