Sunday 4pm to 11:59pm
The northern threat area (purple) is where I think thunderstorms will be more geographically widespread with large hail and damaging winds. I certainly don't rule out a tornado or two in that area.
The southern threat (red) is a forecaster's nightmare. It appears to me that there is a pretty good threat of 1, 2, 3, or so supercell thunderstorms developing and, if they do, they have a higher than average chance of a tornado. But, if temperatures stay warm 2 miles above the ground, no thunderstorms at all will develop.
Tuesday Afternoon through Pre-Dawn Wednesday
AccuWeather's map (above) does a great job outlining the risk. There could be tornadoes over the entire red area with the highest risk in the dashed lines.
It has been a very late start to the 2016 tornado season in the Central Plains. So, here are reminders to get yourself and your family prepared.
- Make sure you have a quick action plan for your children, the elderly and the infirm.
- Make sure you have at least two independent sources of tornado warnings. Make sure at least one is battery powered.
- If you lose cell data and voice service, text messages will often still go through.
- Have a flash light with batteries and solid shoes in your shelter. If you are hit, there will be glass and debris in your exit path.
- Keep your fuel tank full (car and generator) and have some extra cash just in case.
Here is map of tornadoes by state up to the present time.