Sunday, March 27, 2016

Update on Easter Weather

Here is the 11:50pm AccuWeather Regional Radar. Yes, those are thunderstorms in southwest Oklahoma and in Texas near Wichita Falls.

Here is the Dodge City radar as of 11:50pm with an algorithm that shows precipitation type. Blue is snow with darker blues = heavier snow. Precipitation is now spreading over the fire area.

Easter Sunday Forecast:
Very encouraging for controlling the fire. 
Here is the 4km WRF run from 7pm data.
It has over an inch of precipitation falling in part of the fire area and the entire fire area receiving at least 0.4 inches which should be sufficient to allow the fire, currently 31% contained, to be controlled. The forecast for the City of Medicine Lodge is an amazing 1.46 inches!!

At the lower end of the spectrum (and, probably, more realistic) is the GFS. Medicine Lodge (center of burn area) is forecast to receive 0.49 inches.

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