Friday, October 23, 2015

4pm Update on Hurricane Patricia

Here is the 3:30pm satellite image of Patricia.


The hurricane is an hour or two from the eye's landfall in or just west of Manzanillo. I expect the hurricane's damage to be devastating in and around that city and just inland.  

The 4pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center says the pressure has risen to 903 mb (for those interested) with sustained winds of 190 mph. That is still an unbelievable value. 

However, even though the storm has "weakened" it is still a category 5 hurricane. You may recall the devastating storm surge associated with Katrina. Even though it was 'only' a Cat. 3 at landfall, the storm surge, which built up while it was a Cat 5 at sea, devastated the southwest Mississippi coast. It is likely, but not certain, that will be the case here, especially around the bay at Manzanillo.

UPDATE: 4:32PM. The Manzanillo beach camera just failed.

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