Saturday, January 31, 2015

Forecast Snow Amounts

Forecast snowfall now to 4pm Sunday
Our model shows heavy snow in a large area during the next 24 hours. You might wonder why it is forecasting less snow from south of the Quad Cities to east of Peoria and then down toward Quincy. The reason is the model believes there will be some mixed sleet. When this occurs, snowfalls rapidly decreases. If the sleet does not occur amounts will be around 9 to 10". Keep in mind that snow accumulation forecasts are generally accurate to within ±25 miles. 

I'm switching to a second depiction farther east. The area in orange calls for high travel danger due to wind gusts to 25 mph and very heavy rates of snow tomorrow and tomorrow evening. There is a real chance of getting stuck. 
Graphic Courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue
Finally, the region from the Pennsylvania Turnpike toward NYC and Long Island may have light freezing rain. This probably will not be enough to cause power failures but may cause very hazardous driving conditions. Please note that, as a result, I am not forecasting large snow accumulations in the immediate NYC area. That said, if the system shifts 25 mi. south (see above), NYC could receive an extra 5-6 inches. However, that appears to be the less likely scenario. 
While this storm is not getting the publicity of the blizzard earlier this week, it is going to be a major storm. It may especially cause problems in Boston, Springfield, Islip, and other areas that received very heavy snow earlier this week. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.