Major Rains in the Great Plains

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The forecast for catastrophic flooding in the Southwest has not changed.

I want to give a "heads up" to readers in the Central and Southern Plains for a major rain event the end of the week and over the weekend.

I am confident as to what will happen but still not confident about where. Let me illustrate.

Below is a plot of the forecast rainfall from this morning's run of the European model. It forecasts very heavy rains from southwest Kansas into south central Oklahoma.

The US GFS model run from early this afternoon shows the heaviest rains over northern Kansas with a second area of heavy rains over southern Texas.

I still believe that more than 8 inches of rain will fall in the heaviest zone. I suspect we will be able to pin the location down tomorrow. My purpose in posting is because lots of people travel (football games, etc.) over the weekend and there may be travel disruptions. Also, people who live near rivers that easily flood should probably also keep a close eye on the evolving weather forecasts and warnings.

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