10:10pm EST Winter Storm Update

By -
UPDATE 11PM EST:

 I have looked at more data and it looks like the ice is going to make it to Raleigh and even southeast Virginia in sufficient quantities to cause at least scattered power failures.

I'm running out of adjectives but, if I am correct about all of this, power will be out for weeks in places. Shelters will become an urgent need. If you haven't prepared and the roads are still OK, check these suggestions for both ice storms and blizzards.
ORIGINAL POSTING:

Ice Storm
According to reports from electric utilities, 9,200 homes and businesses are already without power in North and South Carolina. Unfortunately, there are tens of thousands more to come.

AccuWeather Regional Radar at 9:03pm shows "round two" -- the main ice and snow storm -- increasing in size and intensity (scroll down and compare to 3:45pm). In Atlanta, things are going downhill after midnight as the icy rain moves in.

Here is the forecast of type of precipitation that will be falling at 7am EST:

By noon, the ice will have spread (colors as above):

The maps below are total accumulated precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 7pm Wednesday:
Dr. Ryan Maue, multiply the snow amounts depicted X 9 to get the snow accumulation
Here is a close-up of the Atlanta area and east along I-20 where the worst ice is forecast.
The above area, especially with the darkest shading, will see severe damage to the electrical and cellular telephone infrastructure that will take days to weeks to repair. Shelters will be necessary. Here is some advice from the CDC for dealing with power failures. 

Here is the forecast weather for 7pm EST Wednesday:


Snow Storm - Blizzard Conditions in Places
While I am quite confident with regard to the ice storm, I have less confidence in the amounts of snow and the wind gusts. 

The newest model shows the snow pattern below:

This hits the I-95 corridor very hard. In some areas, wind gusts about 35 mph are forecast.  

Comments

  1. UnknownFebruary 11, 2014 at 11:44 PM

    Wow. This snow pattern model model has been trending toward higher snowfall for the northeast this whole time. What model is this anyway?

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more