Wednesday, January 22, 2014

The Great Wall of High Pressure

I wrote about this a few days ago but it is important and worth discussing again. This is what the weather pattern looked like about 5 miles above the ground at the height of the snow storm.

And, here is next Monday's forecast:

While not identical, the general pattern is very similar. The "great wall of high pressure" in the West and very strong and cold low pressure in the East. The National Weather Service's 6 to 10 day outlook (Jan. 27 to 31) calls for more of the same weather with very high confidence values.

A = above normal temperatures. B = below normal temperatures. San Francisco set a record with a high of 68° Tuesday, the sixth record high so far in January.

And, they key question is: How long will this last?  I wish I knew.

For quite a while, some of the longer range forecasting tools have tried to indicate a break in the pattern in the 10 to 15th of February period. That may work out, but I would call it very low confidence at this point.

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