Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Threat Wednesday and Thursday

Unfortunately, we have to turn our attention from commemorating the one year anniversary of Sandy to the threat of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms the next two days in the central United States.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night

The yellow area has a significant chance of severe thunderstorms (large hail and damaging winds). Within the yellow area, I have drawn a red rectangle where I believe there is a chance of tornadoes, especially from roughly 4pm to 9pm tomorrow.

Since making the above forecast, an updated computer model forecast simulating the radar for 6pm CDT came in. Note the position of the forecast supercell thunderstorms.
Do not take the times and locations too literally!

Thursday and Thursday Night

Note: This is Halloween Evening. This forecast, from the NWS Storm Prediction Center, looks good, especially with the enhanced probability of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (30%, red). However, some late data has come in indicating the 15% line may need to be moved west to the arrow tips.
Out of season tornadoes can be deadly because people are out of practice. So, I advise keeping an eye on things if you live in these areas.

In the 1984* (I believe '87) we had a tornado warning in Wichita while the children were out trick-or-treating (it was dark) when the sirens went off. It was a real mess. There was a tornado (F-3 intensity!) in a rural area west of town. Fortunately, it lifted before it got to anywhere with significant population density. Meteorologists still shudder to think what could have happened. If you are living in these areas Thursday evening, please check the weather before your children go out.

*Hat tip, Paul Mallonee.

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